Phoenix at Minnesota: Box Score Simulation

Monday Jul 13, 2026 9:00 pm - Minneapolis, MN
Odds: Minnesota by 11.5, Total Points: 169.5

Matchup Menu: PHX @ MIN

More Games From Jul 13, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring PHX MIN
Points 79.3 94.0
Total Points   173.3
Points From 2-Pointers 38.1 48.2
Points From 3-Pointers 24.1 32.0
Points From Free Throws 17.1 13.8
Shooting PHX MIN
Field Goals Made 27.1 34.8
Field Goals Attempted 64.5 70.2
Field Goal % 42.0% 49.5%
2 Pointers Made 19.0 24.1
2 Pointers Attempted 38.8 44.4
2 Point Shooting % 49.1% 54.3%
3 Pointers Made 8.0 10.7
3 Pointers Attempted 25.6 25.8
3 Point Shooting % 31.4% 41.4%
Free Throws Made 17.1 13.8
Free Throws Attempted 22.0 16.9
Free Throw % 77.5% 81.4%
Ball Control PHX MIN
Rebounds 35.9 40.9
Rebounds - Defensive 27.2 31.1
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 9.8
Turnovers 13.9 11.8
Blocked Shots 2.3 4.5
Steals 6.2 7.7
Fouls 14.2 18.7

Playing Style Advantage: Phoenix

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PHX MIN
Total Possessions 82.8
Effective Scoring Chances 77.5 80.8
% of Possessions with PHX MIN
2 Point Attempt 41.6% 47.4%
3 Point Attempt 27.5% 27.5%
Player Fouled 22.6% 17.1%
Turnover 16.8% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken PHX MIN
Shot Blocked 6.5% 3.7%
Offensive Rebound 21.8% 26.5%