Phoenix at Portland: Box Score Simulation

Thursday Sep 17, 2026 10:00 pm - Portland, OR
Odds: Phoenix by 1.5, Total Points: 176.5

Matchup Menu: PHX @ PDX

More Games From Sep 17, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring PHX PDX
Points 86.5 89.1
Total Points   175.6
Points From 2-Pointers 41.7 39.6
Points From 3-Pointers 23.5 35.6
Points From Free Throws 21.3 13.9
Shooting PHX PDX
Field Goals Made 28.7 31.6
Field Goals Attempted 62.0 67.1
Field Goal % 46.3% 47.1%
2 Pointers Made 20.8 19.8
2 Pointers Attempted 38.0 34.8
2 Point Shooting % 54.8% 56.8%
3 Pointers Made 7.8 11.9
3 Pointers Attempted 23.9 32.3
3 Point Shooting % 32.8% 36.7%
Free Throws Made 21.3 13.9
Free Throws Attempted 27.2 17.3
Free Throw % 78.4% 80.4%
Ball Control PHX PDX
Rebounds 37.4 36.3
Rebounds - Defensive 28.7 27.8
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 8.4
Turnovers 13.0 13.4
Blocked Shots 3.2 3.4
Steals 7.2 6.5
Fouls 16.2 21.9

Playing Style Advantage: Portland

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PHX PDX
Total Possessions 82.7
Effective Scoring Chances 78.4 77.8
% of Possessions with PHX PDX
2 Point Attempt 41.0% 37.7%
3 Point Attempt 25.8% 35.0%
Player Fouled 26.5% 19.6%
Turnover 15.7% 16.2%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 8.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken PHX PDX
Shot Blocked 5.1% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 23.7% 22.7%