Phoenix at Indiana: Box Score Simulation

Monday Jun 22, 2026 8:00 pm - Indianapolis, IN
Odds: Indiana by 7.5, Total Points: 177.5

Matchup Menu: PHX @ IND

More Games From Jun 22, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring PHX IND
Points 87.5 98.0
Total Points   185.4
Points From 2-Pointers 46.4 46.6
Points From 3-Pointers 20.7 34.6
Points From Free Throws 20.3 16.8
Shooting PHX IND
Field Goals Made 30.1 34.8
Field Goals Attempted 66.0 68.5
Field Goal % 45.7% 50.8%
2 Pointers Made 23.2 23.3
2 Pointers Attempted 44.2 40.6
2 Point Shooting % 52.5% 57.4%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 11.5
3 Pointers Attempted 21.8 27.9
3 Point Shooting % 31.7% 41.3%
Free Throws Made 20.3 16.8
Free Throws Attempted 26.2 20.9
Free Throw % 77.6% 80.5%
Ball Control PHX IND
Rebounds 35.4 39.4
Rebounds - Defensive 27.4 30.9
Rebounds - Offensive 8.1 8.5
Turnovers 12.1 12.8
Blocked Shots 3.1 3.5
Steals 6.1 6.1
Fouls 19.3 21.9

Playing Style Advantage: Phoenix

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PHX IND
Total Possessions 85.5
Effective Scoring Chances 81.5 81.2
% of Possessions with PHX IND
2 Point Attempt 46.5% 42.6%
3 Point Attempt 23.0% 29.4%
Player Fouled 25.6% 22.5%
Turnover 14.1% 15.0%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken PHX IND
Shot Blocked 5.2% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 20.7% 23.7%