Phoenix at Atlanta: Box Score Simulation

Wednesday Aug 5, 2026 7:00 pm - College Park, GA
Odds: Atlanta by 6.5, Total Points: 182.5

Matchup Menu: PHX @ ATL

More Games From Aug 5, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring PHX ATL
Points 84.9 90.3
Total Points   175.2
Points From 2-Pointers 44.4 43.5
Points From 3-Pointers 21.4 28.3
Points From Free Throws 19.1 18.5
Shooting PHX ATL
Field Goals Made 29.4 31.2
Field Goals Attempted 61.4 69.2
Field Goal % 47.8% 45.1%
2 Pointers Made 22.2 21.8
2 Pointers Attempted 40.1 40.9
2 Point Shooting % 55.4% 53.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.1 9.4
3 Pointers Attempted 21.3 28.3
3 Point Shooting % 33.4% 33.3%
Free Throws Made 19.1 18.5
Free Throws Attempted 24.3 23.3
Free Throw % 78.4% 79.4%
Ball Control PHX ATL
Rebounds 34.9 40.3
Rebounds - Defensive 28.9 28.8
Rebounds - Offensive 6.1 11.5
Turnovers 14.7 12.5
Blocked Shots 3.7 3.6
Steals 6.2 7.9
Fouls 18.3 20.8

Playing Style Advantage: Phoenix

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PHX ATL
Total Possessions 84.4
Effective Scoring Chances 75.8 83.4
% of Possessions with PHX ATL
2 Point Attempt 43.6% 41.9%
3 Point Attempt 23.2% 29.1%
Player Fouled 24.6% 21.7%
Turnover 17.4% 14.8%
Opponent Steal 9.4% 7.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken PHX ATL
Shot Blocked 5.3% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 17.4% 28.5%