Minnesota at Dallas: Box Score Simulation

Thursday May 14, 2026 8:00 pm - Arlington, TX
Odds: Dallas by 3.5, Total Points: 178.5

Matchup Menu: MIN @ DAL

More Games From May 14, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIN DAL
Points 90.1 86.4
Total Points   176.5
Points From 2-Pointers 49.5 46.4
Points From 3-Pointers 26.9 26.3
Points From Free Throws 13.7 13.6
Shooting MIN DAL
Field Goals Made 33.7 32.0
Field Goals Attempted 72.4 71.1
Field Goal % 46.5% 45.0%
2 Pointers Made 24.8 23.2
2 Pointers Attempted 48.9 45.6
2 Point Shooting % 50.7% 50.9%
3 Pointers Made 9.0 8.8
3 Pointers Attempted 23.6 25.5
3 Point Shooting % 38.0% 34.5%
Free Throws Made 13.7 13.6
Free Throws Attempted 16.8 17.0
Free Throw % 81.5% 80.0%
Ball Control MIN DAL
Rebounds 40.2 40.5
Rebounds - Defensive 29.5 29.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.7 11.1
Turnovers 10.4 12.0
Blocked Shots 3.8 3.3
Steals 6.5 5.7
Fouls 15.1 13.7

Playing Style Advantage: Dallas

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIN DAL
Total Possessions 82.4
Effective Scoring Chances 82.7 81.5
% of Possessions with MIN DAL
2 Point Attempt 51.8% 48.0%
3 Point Attempt 24.9% 26.8%
Player Fouled 16.6% 18.4%
Turnover 12.7% 14.5%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 7.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIN DAL
Shot Blocked 4.7% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 26.7% 27.3%