Minnesota at Golden State: Box Score Simulation

Friday Jun 19, 2026 10:00 pm - San Francisco, CA
Odds: Minnesota by 2.5, Total Points: 166.5

Matchup Menu: MIN @ GSV

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NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIN GSV
Points 84.2 83.3
Total Points   167.5
Points From 2-Pointers 42.0 33.3
Points From 3-Pointers 27.5 35.3
Points From Free Throws 14.8 14.7
Shooting MIN GSV
Field Goals Made 30.2 28.4
Field Goals Attempted 67.6 69.6
Field Goal % 44.6% 40.9%
2 Pointers Made 21.0 16.7
2 Pointers Attempted 44.2 36.0
2 Point Shooting % 47.5% 46.2%
3 Pointers Made 9.2 11.8
3 Pointers Attempted 23.3 33.6
3 Point Shooting % 39.3% 35.1%
Free Throws Made 14.8 14.7
Free Throws Attempted 18.2 18.6
Free Throw % 81.2% 78.8%
Ball Control MIN GSV
Rebounds 41.1 40.8
Rebounds - Defensive 30.0 27.9
Rebounds - Offensive 11.1 12.9
Turnovers 12.3 11.8
Blocked Shots 4.2 3.5
Steals 6.7 6.9
Fouls 16.1 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: Golden State

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIN GSV
Total Possessions 80.1
Effective Scoring Chances 78.9 81.2
% of Possessions with MIN GSV
2 Point Attempt 47.8% 38.0%
3 Point Attempt 25.2% 35.4%
Player Fouled 18.0% 20.1%
Turnover 15.4% 14.8%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIN GSV
Shot Blocked 5.1% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 28.5% 30.1%