Minnesota at Toronto: Box Score Simulation

Thursday Jul 30, 2026 8:00 pm - Toronto, ON
Odds: Minnesota by 12.5, Total Points: 185.5

Matchup Menu: MIN @ TOR

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NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIN TOR
Points 100.1 86.0
Total Points   186.1
Points From 2-Pointers 53.8 34.9
Points From 3-Pointers 29.8 33.8
Points From Free Throws 16.5 17.2
Shooting MIN TOR
Field Goals Made 36.8 28.7
Field Goals Attempted 73.9 68.3
Field Goal % 49.8% 42.1%
2 Pointers Made 26.9 17.5
2 Pointers Attempted 48.7 37.5
2 Point Shooting % 55.3% 46.6%
3 Pointers Made 9.9 11.3
3 Pointers Attempted 25.2 30.8
3 Point Shooting % 39.3% 36.6%
Free Throws Made 16.5 17.2
Free Throws Attempted 20.2 20.9
Free Throw % 81.7% 82.4%
Ball Control MIN TOR
Rebounds 43.2 36.9
Rebounds - Defensive 30.2 26.1
Rebounds - Offensive 13.0 10.9
Turnovers 10.8 14.4
Blocked Shots 4.8 2.5
Steals 7.5 6.2
Fouls 17.0 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: Toronto

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIN TOR
Total Possessions 84.5
Effective Scoring Chances 86.7 81.0
% of Possessions with MIN TOR
2 Point Attempt 49.4% 38.5%
3 Point Attempt 25.6% 31.7%
Player Fouled 19.3% 20.1%
Turnover 12.7% 17.0%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 8.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIN TOR
Shot Blocked 3.7% 6.5%
Offensive Rebound 33.3% 26.4%