Minnesota at Toronto: Box Score Simulation

Thursday Jul 30, 2026 8:00 pm - Toronto, ON
Odds: Minnesota by 12.5, Total Points: 186.5

Matchup Menu: MIN @ TOR

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NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIN TOR
Points 99.1 83.4
Total Points   182.5
Points From 2-Pointers 52.1 37.3
Points From 3-Pointers 31.3 30.7
Points From Free Throws 15.7 15.4
Shooting MIN TOR
Field Goals Made 36.5 28.9
Field Goals Attempted 73.0 68.5
Field Goal % 49.9% 42.2%
2 Pointers Made 26.0 18.6
2 Pointers Attempted 46.9 38.3
2 Point Shooting % 55.5% 48.7%
3 Pointers Made 10.4 10.2
3 Pointers Attempted 26.2 30.3
3 Point Shooting % 39.9% 33.8%
Free Throws Made 15.7 15.4
Free Throws Attempted 19.3 19.3
Free Throw % 81.5% 79.5%
Ball Control MIN TOR
Rebounds 42.0 37.8
Rebounds - Defensive 29.5 26.0
Rebounds - Offensive 12.5 11.8
Turnovers 10.6 14.6
Blocked Shots 4.6 2.5
Steals 8.3 5.7
Fouls 16.1 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: Toronto

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIN TOR
Total Possessions 83.4
Effective Scoring Chances 85.3 80.6
% of Possessions with MIN TOR
2 Point Attempt 48.4% 39.4%
3 Point Attempt 27.0% 31.2%
Player Fouled 18.4% 19.3%
Turnover 12.8% 17.5%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 9.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIN TOR
Shot Blocked 3.7% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 32.5% 28.6%