Minnesota at Connecticut: Box Score Simulation

Sunday Sep 20, 2026 1:00 pm - Uncasville, CT
Odds: N/A, Total Points: N/A

Matchup Menu: MIN @ CON

More Games From Sep 20, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIN CON
Points 93.3 76.8
Total Points   170.0
Points From 2-Pointers 49.3 42.9
Points From 3-Pointers 27.0 19.4
Points From Free Throws 16.9 14.4
Shooting MIN CON
Field Goals Made 33.7 27.9
Field Goals Attempted 67.9 68.9
Field Goal % 49.6% 40.5%
2 Pointers Made 24.6 21.5
2 Pointers Attempted 46.1 47.2
2 Point Shooting % 53.4% 45.5%
3 Pointers Made 9.0 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 21.8 21.7
3 Point Shooting % 41.4% 29.9%
Free Throws Made 16.9 14.4
Free Throws Attempted 20.8 20.2
Free Throw % 81.5% 71.6%
Ball Control MIN CON
Rebounds 41.1 38.7
Rebounds - Defensive 31.1 26.1
Rebounds - Offensive 10.0 12.6
Turnovers 12.6 14.4
Blocked Shots 5.3 3.8
Steals 8.1 7.1
Fouls 16.3 16.5

Playing Style Advantage: Connecticut

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIN CON
Total Possessions 83.1
Effective Scoring Chances 80.5 81.4
% of Possessions with MIN CON
2 Point Attempt 48.7% 48.3%
3 Point Attempt 23.0% 22.2%
Player Fouled 19.9% 19.6%
Turnover 15.2% 17.3%
Opponent Steal 8.5% 9.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIN CON
Shot Blocked 5.7% 7.9%
Offensive Rebound 27.7% 28.9%