Minnesota at Washington: Box Score Simulation

Friday Aug 21, 2026 7:30 pm - Washington, DC
Odds: Minnesota by 1.5, Total Points: 165.5

Matchup Menu: MIN @ WAS

More Games From Aug 21, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIN WAS
Points 88.1 80.9
Total Points   169.0
Points From 2-Pointers 47.2 43.7
Points From 3-Pointers 27.3 20.5
Points From Free Throws 13.6 16.8
Shooting MIN WAS
Field Goals Made 32.7 28.6
Field Goals Attempted 70.1 65.5
Field Goal % 46.6% 43.7%
2 Pointers Made 23.6 21.8
2 Pointers Attempted 46.6 44.9
2 Point Shooting % 50.6% 48.6%
3 Pointers Made 9.1 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 23.5 20.7
3 Point Shooting % 38.8% 33.0%
Free Throws Made 13.6 16.8
Free Throws Attempted 16.7 23.1
Free Throw % 81.5% 72.6%
Ball Control MIN WAS
Rebounds 35.4 43.4
Rebounds - Defensive 26.4 29.9
Rebounds - Offensive 9.0 13.5
Turnovers 10.6 15.3
Blocked Shots 5.7 3.0
Steals 9.0 4.7
Fouls 18.2 14.3

Playing Style Advantage: Washington

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIN WAS
Total Possessions 81.7
Effective Scoring Chances 80.1 80.0
% of Possessions with MIN WAS
2 Point Attempt 50.7% 46.0%
3 Point Attempt 25.6% 21.2%
Player Fouled 17.5% 22.3%
Turnover 12.9% 18.7%
Opponent Steal 5.7% 11.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIN WAS
Shot Blocked 4.7% 8.3%
Offensive Rebound 23.1% 33.9%