Minnesota at Phoenix: Box Score Simulation

Tuesday May 12, 2026 10:00 pm - Phoenix, AZ
Odds: Phoenix by 4.5, Total Points: 168.5

Matchup Menu: MIN @ PHX

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NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIN PHX
Points 94.6 79.5
Total Points   174.1
Points From 2-Pointers 48.2 38.8
Points From 3-Pointers 33.0 23.9
Points From Free Throws 13.4 16.9
Shooting MIN PHX
Field Goals Made 35.1 27.3
Field Goals Attempted 70.1 64.8
Field Goal % 50.1% 42.2%
2 Pointers Made 24.1 19.4
2 Pointers Attempted 43.9 39.6
2 Point Shooting % 54.9% 49.0%
3 Pointers Made 11.0 8.0
3 Pointers Attempted 26.2 25.2
3 Point Shooting % 42.0% 31.5%
Free Throws Made 13.4 16.9
Free Throws Attempted 16.5 21.6
Free Throw % 81.5% 78.0%
Ball Control MIN PHX
Rebounds 40.3 36.0
Rebounds - Defensive 30.8 27.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.6 9.0
Turnovers 11.7 13.8
Blocked Shots 4.6 2.4
Steals 7.7 6.3
Fouls 18.4 14.0

Playing Style Advantage: Phoenix

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIN PHX
Total Possessions 82.5
Effective Scoring Chances 80.4 77.7
% of Possessions with MIN PHX
2 Point Attempt 47.2% 42.4%
3 Point Attempt 28.2% 27.1%
Player Fouled 17.0% 22.2%
Turnover 14.1% 16.7%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 9.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIN PHX
Shot Blocked 3.8% 6.6%
Offensive Rebound 26.1% 22.6%