Minnesota at Indiana: Box Score Simulation
Friday Aug 22, 2025 7:30 pm -
Indianapolis, IN
Odds:
Minnesota by 4.5,
Total Points:
164.5
Matchup Menu: MIN @ IND
NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.
Box Score Projection
| Scoring | MIN | IND |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 96.2 | 94.2 |
| Total Points | 190.4 | |
| Points From 2-Pointers | 54.5 | 43.0 |
| Points From 3-Pointers | 25.5 | 35.0 |
| Points From Free Throws | 16.2 | 16.2 |
| Shooting | MIN | IND |
|---|---|---|
| Field Goals Made | 35.7 | 33.1 |
| Field Goals Attempted | 73.1 | 69.2 |
| Field Goal % | 48.9% | 47.9% |
| 2 Pointers Made | 27.2 | 21.5 |
| 2 Pointers Attempted | 51.0 | 40.8 |
| 2 Point Shooting % | 53.4% | 52.6% |
| 3 Pointers Made | 8.5 | 11.7 |
| 3 Pointers Attempted | 22.1 | 28.4 |
| 3 Point Shooting % | 38.5% | 41.1% |
| Free Throws Made | 16.2 | 16.2 |
| Free Throws Attempted | 19.7 | 20.2 |
| Free Throw % | 82.0% | 80.3% |
| Ball Control | MIN | IND |
|---|---|---|
| Rebounds | 39.0 | 38.1 |
| Rebounds - Defensive | 27.7 | 27.9 |
| Rebounds - Offensive | 11.3 | 10.2 |
| Turnovers | 11.4 | 14.3 |
| Blocked Shots | 4.6 | 2.8 |
| Steals | 7.6 | 6.2 |
| Fouls | 18.3 | 15.8 |
Playing Style Advantage: Indiana
Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.
NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.
Tempo-Free Projection
| Possession Stats | MIN | IND |
|---|---|---|
| Total Possessions | 85.5 | |
| Effective Scoring Chances | 85.4 | 81.4 |
| % of Possessions with | MIN | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Point Attempt | 52.1% | 41.9% |
| 3 Point Attempt | 22.6% | 29.1% |
| Player Fouled | 18.5% | 21.4% |
| Turnover | 13.3% | 16.7% |
| Opponent Steal | 7.2% | 8.9% |
| Odds Per Shot Taken | MIN | IND |
|---|---|---|
| Shot Blocked | 4.1% | 6.3% |
| Offensive Rebound | 28.8% | 27.0% |