Minnesota at Atlanta: Box Score Simulation

Sunday Aug 30, 2026 3:00 pm - College Park, GA
Odds: Minnesota by 2.5, Total Points: 177.5

Matchup Menu: MIN @ ATL

More Games From Aug 30, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIN ATL
Points 93.7 86.6
Total Points   180.3
Points From 2-Pointers 51.6 40.7
Points From 3-Pointers 27.0 27.8
Points From Free Throws 15.1 18.1
Shooting MIN ATL
Field Goals Made 34.8 29.6
Field Goals Attempted 67.6 71.3
Field Goal % 51.4% 41.5%
2 Pointers Made 25.8 20.3
2 Pointers Attempted 45.7 42.2
2 Point Shooting % 56.4% 48.3%
3 Pointers Made 9.0 9.3
3 Pointers Attempted 21.9 29.1
3 Point Shooting % 41.0% 31.8%
Free Throws Made 15.1 18.1
Free Throws Attempted 18.5 22.8
Free Throw % 81.5% 79.4%
Ball Control MIN ATL
Rebounds 37.2 41.1
Rebounds - Defensive 29.1 26.5
Rebounds - Offensive 8.1 14.6
Turnovers 13.6 13.7
Blocked Shots 5.8 3.0
Steals 7.3 7.7
Fouls 17.0 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: Atlanta

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIN ATL
Total Possessions 84.4
Effective Scoring Chances 79.0 85.3
% of Possessions with MIN ATL
2 Point Attempt 48.8% 41.6%
3 Point Attempt 23.4% 28.7%
Player Fouled 17.8% 20.2%
Turnover 16.1% 16.2%
Opponent Steal 9.1% 8.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIN ATL
Shot Blocked 4.4% 8.7%
Offensive Rebound 23.5% 33.4%