Portland at Seattle: Box Score Simulation

Saturday Jul 4, 2026 9:00 pm - Seattle, WA
Odds: Seattle by 4.5, Total Points: 172.5

Matchup Menu: PDX @ SEA

More Games From Jul 4, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring PDX SEA
Points 85.8 87.4
Total Points   173.2
Points From 2-Pointers 38.5 44.3
Points From 3-Pointers 30.7 26.0
Points From Free Throws 16.6 17.1
Shooting PDX SEA
Field Goals Made 29.5 30.8
Field Goals Attempted 68.7 69.3
Field Goal % 42.9% 44.5%
2 Pointers Made 19.2 22.1
2 Pointers Attempted 37.4 41.6
2 Point Shooting % 51.5% 53.2%
3 Pointers Made 10.2 8.7
3 Pointers Attempted 31.4 27.6
3 Point Shooting % 32.6% 31.4%
Free Throws Made 16.6 17.1
Free Throws Attempted 20.4 21.9
Free Throw % 81.7% 78.0%
Ball Control PDX SEA
Rebounds 38.9 42.9
Rebounds - Defensive 28.4 30.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.5 12.5
Turnovers 13.6 13.6
Blocked Shots 3.5 4.3
Steals 7.8 7.9
Fouls 16.7 16.5

Playing Style Advantage: Seattle

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PDX SEA
Total Possessions 84.2
Effective Scoring Chances 81.1 83.1
% of Possessions with PDX SEA
2 Point Attempt 38.8% 42.4%
3 Point Attempt 32.5% 28.2%
Player Fouled 19.6% 19.8%
Turnover 16.2% 16.1%
Opponent Steal 9.4% 9.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken PDX SEA
Shot Blocked 6.4% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 25.7% 30.6%