Portland at Phoenix: Box Score Simulation

Sunday Aug 16, 2026 7:00 pm - Phoenix, AZ
Odds: Phoenix by 4.5, Total Points: 177.5

Matchup Menu: PDX @ PHX

More Games From Aug 16, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring PDX PHX
Points 89.1 86.7
Total Points   175.8
Points From 2-Pointers 39.2 42.1
Points From 3-Pointers 36.0 23.1
Points From Free Throws 13.9 21.5
Shooting PDX PHX
Field Goals Made 31.6 28.7
Field Goals Attempted 67.1 62.0
Field Goal % 47.1% 46.4%
2 Pointers Made 19.6 21.0
2 Pointers Attempted 35.0 38.2
2 Point Shooting % 56.1% 55.0%
3 Pointers Made 12.0 7.7
3 Pointers Attempted 32.2 23.7
3 Point Shooting % 37.3% 32.5%
Free Throws Made 13.9 21.5
Free Throws Attempted 17.4 27.6
Free Throw % 80.1% 78.0%
Ball Control PDX PHX
Rebounds 36.3 37.4
Rebounds - Defensive 28.0 28.9
Rebounds - Offensive 8.3 8.5
Turnovers 13.4 12.9
Blocked Shots 3.4 3.2
Steals 6.4 7.2
Fouls 22.2 16.4

Playing Style Advantage: Portland

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PDX PHX
Total Possessions 82.9
Effective Scoring Chances 77.7 78.5
% of Possessions with PDX PHX
2 Point Attempt 37.8% 41.2%
3 Point Attempt 34.8% 25.5%
Player Fouled 19.7% 26.8%
Turnover 16.2% 15.5%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken PDX PHX
Shot Blocked 5.2% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 22.2% 23.3%