Portland at Las Vegas: Box Score Simulation

Tuesday Jul 28, 2026 10:00 pm - Paradise, NV
Odds: Las Vegas by 11.5, Total Points: 176.5

Matchup Menu: PDX @ LVA

More Games From Jul 28, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring PDX LVA
Points 84.8 94.2
Total Points   179.0
Points From 2-Pointers 38.2 47.9
Points From 3-Pointers 32.4 26.5
Points From Free Throws 14.2 19.8
Shooting PDX LVA
Field Goals Made 29.9 32.8
Field Goals Attempted 68.4 66.2
Field Goal % 43.7% 49.5%
2 Pointers Made 19.1 23.9
2 Pointers Attempted 39.0 41.6
2 Point Shooting % 49.0% 57.5%
3 Pointers Made 10.8 8.8
3 Pointers Attempted 29.4 24.6
3 Point Shooting % 36.7% 36.0%
Free Throws Made 14.2 19.8
Free Throws Attempted 17.7 24.3
Free Throw % 80.4% 81.6%
Ball Control PDX LVA
Rebounds 35.4 40.3
Rebounds - Defensive 26.2 30.6
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 9.7
Turnovers 13.5 11.5
Blocked Shots 2.1 4.9
Steals 6.5 6.9
Fouls 19.8 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: Portland

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PDX LVA
Total Possessions 83.0
Effective Scoring Chances 78.8 81.2
% of Possessions with PDX LVA
2 Point Attempt 41.4% 44.5%
3 Point Attempt 31.2% 26.3%
Player Fouled 18.1% 23.8%
Turnover 16.2% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 7.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken PDX LVA
Shot Blocked 7.5% 3.2%
Offensive Rebound 23.1% 27.0%