Indiana at Toronto: Box Score Simulation

Tuesday Aug 18, 2026 7:00 pm - Toronto, ON
Odds: Indiana by 10.5, Total Points: 190.5

Matchup Menu: IND @ TOR

More Games From Aug 18, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring IND TOR
Points 103.5 90.7
Total Points   194.3
Points From 2-Pointers 50.4 46.4
Points From 3-Pointers 33.7 25.9
Points From Free Throws 19.4 18.4
Shooting IND TOR
Field Goals Made 36.4 31.8
Field Goals Attempted 70.5 70.0
Field Goal % 51.7% 45.5%
2 Pointers Made 25.2 23.2
2 Pointers Attempted 42.8 44.3
2 Point Shooting % 58.9% 52.4%
3 Pointers Made 11.2 8.6
3 Pointers Attempted 27.7 25.7
3 Point Shooting % 40.5% 33.6%
Free Throws Made 19.4 18.4
Free Throws Attempted 24.3 23.1
Free Throw % 80.0% 79.5%
Ball Control IND TOR
Rebounds 40.7 36.6
Rebounds - Defensive 29.9 25.9
Rebounds - Offensive 10.8 10.7
Turnovers 11.8 13.0
Blocked Shots 3.6 3.1
Steals 6.6 5.6
Fouls 19.2 21.2

Playing Style Advantage: Toronto

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IND TOR
Total Possessions 86.4
Effective Scoring Chances 85.4 84.1
% of Possessions with IND TOR
2 Point Attempt 43.5% 45.0%
3 Point Attempt 28.2% 26.1%
Player Fouled 24.5% 22.2%
Turnover 13.7% 15.0%
Opponent Steal 6.5% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken IND TOR
Shot Blocked 4.5% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 29.4% 26.4%