Indiana at Connecticut: Box Score Simulation

Saturday Jun 13, 2026 6:00 pm - Uncasville, CT
Odds: Indiana by 8.5, Total Points: 170.5

Matchup Menu: IND @ CON

More Games From Jun 13, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring IND CON
Points 97.0 84.0
Total Points   181.0
Points From 2-Pointers 47.5 50.7
Points From 3-Pointers 28.8 16.1
Points From Free Throws 20.7 17.2
Shooting IND CON
Field Goals Made 33.3 30.7
Field Goals Attempted 65.4 70.0
Field Goal % 50.9% 43.9%
2 Pointers Made 23.7 25.4
2 Pointers Attempted 42.3 51.9
2 Point Shooting % 56.1% 48.9%
3 Pointers Made 9.6 5.4
3 Pointers Attempted 23.1 18.1
3 Point Shooting % 41.4% 29.7%
Free Throws Made 20.7 17.2
Free Throws Attempted 25.9 24.0
Free Throw % 80.0% 71.5%
Ball Control IND CON
Rebounds 40.2 37.4
Rebounds - Defensive 31.6 26.1
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 11.4
Turnovers 14.1 12.9
Blocked Shots 4.1 4.8
Steals 6.6 7.0
Fouls 19.4 22.7

Playing Style Advantage: Connecticut

Expected Effect: +0.8 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IND CON
Total Possessions 86.1
Effective Scoring Chances 80.7 84.6
% of Possessions with IND CON
2 Point Attempt 43.8% 52.4%
3 Point Attempt 23.9% 18.3%
Player Fouled 26.4% 22.5%
Turnover 16.4% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken IND CON
Shot Blocked 7.0% 6.4%
Offensive Rebound 24.9% 26.5%