Indiana at Seattle: Box Score Simulation

Tuesday Jul 28, 2026 9:30 pm - Seattle, WA
Odds: Indiana by 9.5, Total Points: 186.5

Matchup Menu: IND @ SEA

More Games From Jul 28, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring IND SEA
Points 95.9 87.1
Total Points   183.0
Points From 2-Pointers 45.2 47.5
Points From 3-Pointers 30.6 23.0
Points From Free Throws 20.1 16.5
Shooting IND SEA
Field Goals Made 32.8 31.4
Field Goals Attempted 70.4 72.9
Field Goal % 46.6% 43.1%
2 Pointers Made 22.6 23.8
2 Pointers Attempted 43.0 48.2
2 Point Shooting % 52.6% 49.3%
3 Pointers Made 10.2 7.7
3 Pointers Attempted 27.4 24.7
3 Point Shooting % 37.1% 31.0%
Free Throws Made 20.1 16.5
Free Throws Attempted 25.1 20.9
Free Throw % 80.0% 79.1%
Ball Control IND SEA
Rebounds 43.6 40.2
Rebounds - Defensive 32.6 29.1
Rebounds - Offensive 11.0 11.1
Turnovers 13.1 12.9
Blocked Shots 3.5 4.6
Steals 7.4 6.7
Fouls 16.7 19.7

Playing Style Advantage: Seattle

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IND SEA
Total Possessions 87.6
Effective Scoring Chances 85.4 85.8
% of Possessions with IND SEA
2 Point Attempt 42.8% 48.2%
3 Point Attempt 27.3% 24.7%
Player Fouled 22.5% 19.1%
Turnover 15.0% 14.7%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken IND SEA
Shot Blocked 6.3% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 27.3% 25.3%