Indiana at Phoenix: Box Score Simulation

Thursday Jul 9, 2026 10:00 pm - Phoenix, AZ
Odds: Indiana by 1.5, Total Points: 171.5

Matchup Menu: IND @ PHX

More Games From Jul 9, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring IND PHX
Points 98.1 87.5
Total Points   185.6
Points From 2-Pointers 46.7 46.9
Points From 3-Pointers 34.5 20.7
Points From Free Throws 16.9 19.9
Shooting IND PHX
Field Goals Made 34.9 30.3
Field Goals Attempted 68.2 66.3
Field Goal % 51.1% 45.7%
2 Pointers Made 23.4 23.4
2 Pointers Attempted 40.6 44.6
2 Point Shooting % 57.6% 52.5%
3 Pointers Made 11.5 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 27.6 21.7
3 Point Shooting % 41.6% 31.7%
Free Throws Made 16.9 19.9
Free Throws Attempted 21.1 25.4
Free Throw % 80.0% 78.4%
Ball Control IND PHX
Rebounds 39.2 35.3
Rebounds - Defensive 30.8 27.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 8.1
Turnovers 12.9 12.2
Blocked Shots 3.5 3.0
Steals 6.2 6.3
Fouls 21.5 19.4

Playing Style Advantage: Phoenix

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IND PHX
Total Possessions 85.5
Effective Scoring Chances 81.0 81.4
% of Possessions with IND PHX
2 Point Attempt 42.7% 46.9%
3 Point Attempt 29.0% 22.8%
Player Fouled 22.6% 25.2%
Turnover 15.1% 14.3%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 7.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken IND PHX
Shot Blocked 4.7% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 23.6% 20.8%