Indiana at Atlanta: Box Score Simulation

Sunday Aug 16, 2026 5:00 pm - Atlanta, GA
Odds: Atlanta by 1.5, Total Points: 187.5

Matchup Menu: IND @ ATL

More Games From Aug 16, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring IND ATL
Points 98.2 94.4
Total Points   192.6
Points From 2-Pointers 50.4 49.7
Points From 3-Pointers 29.1 23.1
Points From Free Throws 18.8 21.6
Shooting IND ATL
Field Goals Made 34.9 32.6
Field Goals Attempted 65.4 71.8
Field Goal % 53.3% 45.4%
2 Pointers Made 25.2 24.9
2 Pointers Attempted 42.1 47.4
2 Point Shooting % 59.8% 52.4%
3 Pointers Made 9.7 7.7
3 Pointers Attempted 23.3 24.4
3 Point Shooting % 41.6% 31.6%
Free Throws Made 18.8 21.6
Free Throws Attempted 23.5 27.2
Free Throw % 80.0% 79.4%
Ball Control IND ATL
Rebounds 36.1 38.9
Rebounds - Defensive 29.1 26.0
Rebounds - Offensive 7.0 13.0
Turnovers 15.1 12.1
Blocked Shots 4.5 3.8
Steals 5.9 7.7
Fouls 20.3 20.8

Playing Style Advantage: Atlanta

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IND ATL
Total Possessions 87.4
Effective Scoring Chances 79.3 88.2
% of Possessions with IND ATL
2 Point Attempt 43.9% 46.4%
3 Point Attempt 24.3% 23.9%
Player Fouled 23.8% 23.2%
Turnover 17.3% 13.9%
Opponent Steal 8.8% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken IND ATL
Shot Blocked 5.3% 7.1%
Offensive Rebound 21.2% 30.8%