Indiana at Las Vegas: Box Score Simulation

Sunday Jul 5, 2026 7:00 pm - Las Vegas, NV
Odds: Las Vegas by 2.5, Total Points: 180.5

Matchup Menu: IND @ LVA

More Games From Jul 5, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring IND LVA
Points 92.5 94.0
Total Points   186.5
Points From 2-Pointers 43.6 53.7
Points From 3-Pointers 30.8 22.4
Points From Free Throws 18.2 17.9
Shooting IND LVA
Field Goals Made 32.1 34.3
Field Goals Attempted 69.6 69.9
Field Goal % 46.1% 49.0%
2 Pointers Made 21.8 26.8
2 Pointers Attempted 44.5 49.3
2 Point Shooting % 49.0% 54.4%
3 Pointers Made 10.3 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 25.1 20.6
3 Point Shooting % 40.8% 36.2%
Free Throws Made 18.2 17.9
Free Throws Attempted 22.3 22.4
Free Throw % 81.6% 80.0%
Ball Control IND LVA
Rebounds 39.7 37.8
Rebounds - Defensive 29.8 29.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.9 8.3
Turnovers 13.2 10.9
Blocked Shots 2.4 4.4
Steals 6.0 6.5
Fouls 19.2 18.1

Playing Style Advantage: Indiana

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IND LVA
Total Possessions 86.1
Effective Scoring Chances 82.8 83.5
% of Possessions with IND LVA
2 Point Attempt 45.5% 51.7%
3 Point Attempt 25.7% 21.6%
Player Fouled 21.0% 22.3%
Turnover 15.3% 12.7%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken IND LVA
Shot Blocked 6.4% 3.5%
Offensive Rebound 25.1% 21.8%