Atlanta at Dallas: Box Score Simulation

Tuesday May 12, 2026 8:00 pm - Arlington, TX
Odds: Atlanta by 1.5, Total Points: 180.5

Matchup Menu: ATL @ DAL

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NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring ATL DAL
Points 87.5 90.9
Total Points   178.4
Points From 2-Pointers 48.1 53.1
Points From 3-Pointers 20.9 23.5
Points From Free Throws 18.6 14.4
Shooting ATL DAL
Field Goals Made 31.0 34.4
Field Goals Attempted 70.5 67.4
Field Goal % 43.9% 51.0%
2 Pointers Made 24.0 26.5
2 Pointers Attempted 47.1 46.0
2 Point Shooting % 51.0% 57.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 23.4 21.4
3 Point Shooting % 29.7% 36.6%
Free Throws Made 18.6 14.4
Free Throws Attempted 23.7 18.1
Free Throw % 78.3% 79.4%
Ball Control ATL DAL
Rebounds 40.0 37.1
Rebounds - Defensive 27.9 30.0
Rebounds - Offensive 12.1 7.1
Turnovers 11.6 13.1
Blocked Shots 3.0 4.5
Steals 6.5 5.4
Fouls 17.1 18.2

Playing Style Advantage: Dallas

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ATL DAL
Total Possessions 84.3
Effective Scoring Chances 84.8 78.3
% of Possessions with ATL DAL
2 Point Attempt 48.0% 49.7%
3 Point Attempt 23.8% 23.1%
Player Fouled 21.6% 20.3%
Turnover 13.8% 15.6%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken ATL DAL
Shot Blocked 6.7% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 28.8% 20.4%