Atlanta at Golden State: Box Score Simulation

Friday Jun 26, 2026 10:00 pm - San Francisco, CA
Odds: Atlanta by 1.5, Total Points: 164.5

Matchup Menu: ATL @ GSV

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NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring ATL GSV
Points 79.3 85.5
Total Points   164.8
Points From 2-Pointers 35.2 40.0
Points From 3-Pointers 24.4 30.2
Points From Free Throws 19.6 15.3
Shooting ATL GSV
Field Goals Made 25.8 30.1
Field Goals Attempted 64.9 65.6
Field Goal % 39.7% 45.8%
2 Pointers Made 17.6 20.0
2 Pointers Attempted 38.3 37.6
2 Point Shooting % 46.0% 53.2%
3 Pointers Made 8.1 10.1
3 Pointers Attempted 26.6 28.0
3 Point Shooting % 30.6% 35.9%
Free Throws Made 19.6 15.3
Free Throws Attempted 24.7 19.4
Free Throw % 79.4% 78.7%
Ball Control ATL GSV
Rebounds 41.2 38.0
Rebounds - Defensive 29.0 29.4
Rebounds - Offensive 12.2 8.7
Turnovers 13.3 12.3
Blocked Shots 3.1 5.1
Steals 6.4 6.6
Fouls 17.7 18.6

Playing Style Advantage: Atlanta

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ATL GSV
Total Possessions 81.1
Effective Scoring Chances 80.0 77.5
% of Possessions with ATL GSV
2 Point Attempt 40.2% 41.3%
3 Point Attempt 27.9% 30.8%
Player Fouled 22.9% 21.9%
Turnover 16.4% 15.2%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken ATL GSV
Shot Blocked 7.9% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 29.3% 23.0%