Atlanta at Washington: Box Score Simulation

Thursday Jul 2, 2026 7:30 pm - Washington, DC
Odds: Atlanta by 8.5, Total Points: 166.5

Matchup Menu: ATL @ WAS

More Games From Jul 2, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring ATL WAS
Points 83.2 83.2
Total Points   166.5
Points From 2-Pointers 40.6 48.5
Points From 3-Pointers 23.3 16.6
Points From Free Throws 19.3 18.1
Shooting ATL WAS
Field Goals Made 28.1 29.8
Field Goals Attempted 68.5 60.8
Field Goal % 41.0% 49.0%
2 Pointers Made 20.3 24.3
2 Pointers Attempted 42.5 43.8
2 Point Shooting % 47.8% 55.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.8 5.5
3 Pointers Attempted 26.0 17.0
3 Point Shooting % 29.9% 32.7%
Free Throws Made 19.3 18.1
Free Throws Attempted 24.4 25.2
Free Throw % 79.1% 71.8%
Ball Control ATL WAS
Rebounds 37.1 40.6
Rebounds - Defensive 25.9 31.6
Rebounds - Offensive 11.2 9.0
Turnovers 11.8 16.5
Blocked Shots 4.6 4.5
Steals 9.1 4.7
Fouls 21.0 19.3

Playing Style Advantage: Atlanta

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ATL WAS
Total Possessions 83.6
Effective Scoring Chances 83.0 76.1
% of Possessions with ATL WAS
2 Point Attempt 44.0% 46.4%
3 Point Attempt 26.9% 18.0%
Player Fouled 23.0% 25.2%
Turnover 14.1% 19.7%
Opponent Steal 5.6% 10.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken ATL WAS
Shot Blocked 7.5% 6.8%
Offensive Rebound 26.2% 25.8%