Atlanta at Phoenix: Box Score Simulation

Saturday Aug 22, 2026 10:00 pm - Phoenix, AZ
Odds: Atlanta by 8.5, Total Points: 177.5

Matchup Menu: ATL @ PHX

More Games From Aug 22, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring ATL PHX
Points 90.3 84.9
Total Points   175.2
Points From 2-Pointers 43.5 44.4
Points From 3-Pointers 28.3 21.4
Points From Free Throws 18.5 19.1
Shooting ATL PHX
Field Goals Made 31.2 29.4
Field Goals Attempted 69.2 61.4
Field Goal % 45.1% 47.8%
2 Pointers Made 21.8 22.2
2 Pointers Attempted 40.9 40.1
2 Point Shooting % 53.3% 55.4%
3 Pointers Made 9.4 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 28.3 21.3
3 Point Shooting % 33.3% 33.4%
Free Throws Made 18.5 19.1
Free Throws Attempted 23.3 24.3
Free Throw % 79.4% 78.4%
Ball Control ATL PHX
Rebounds 40.3 34.9
Rebounds - Defensive 28.8 28.9
Rebounds - Offensive 11.5 6.1
Turnovers 12.5 14.7
Blocked Shots 3.6 3.7
Steals 7.9 6.2
Fouls 20.8 18.3

Playing Style Advantage: Phoenix

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ATL PHX
Total Possessions 84.4
Effective Scoring Chances 83.4 75.8
% of Possessions with ATL PHX
2 Point Attempt 41.9% 43.6%
3 Point Attempt 29.1% 23.2%
Player Fouled 21.7% 24.6%
Turnover 14.8% 17.4%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 9.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken ATL PHX
Shot Blocked 6.2% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 28.5% 17.4%