Atlanta at Minnesota: Box Score Simulation

Wednesday May 27, 2026 9:00 pm - Minneapolis, MN
Odds: Atlanta by 2.5, Total Points: 165.5

Matchup Menu: ATL @ MIN

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NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring ATL MIN
Points 86.6 93.7
Total Points   180.3
Points From 2-Pointers 40.7 51.6
Points From 3-Pointers 27.8 27.0
Points From Free Throws 18.1 15.1
Shooting ATL MIN
Field Goals Made 29.6 34.8
Field Goals Attempted 71.3 67.6
Field Goal % 41.5% 51.4%
2 Pointers Made 20.3 25.8
2 Pointers Attempted 42.2 45.7
2 Point Shooting % 48.3% 56.4%
3 Pointers Made 9.3 9.0
3 Pointers Attempted 29.1 21.9
3 Point Shooting % 31.8% 41.0%
Free Throws Made 18.1 15.1
Free Throws Attempted 22.8 18.5
Free Throw % 79.4% 81.5%
Ball Control ATL MIN
Rebounds 41.1 37.2
Rebounds - Defensive 26.5 29.1
Rebounds - Offensive 14.6 8.1
Turnovers 13.7 13.6
Blocked Shots 3.0 5.8
Steals 7.7 7.3
Fouls 15.1 17.0

Playing Style Advantage: Atlanta

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ATL MIN
Total Possessions 84.4
Effective Scoring Chances 85.3 79.0
% of Possessions with ATL MIN
2 Point Attempt 41.6% 48.8%
3 Point Attempt 28.7% 23.4%
Player Fouled 20.2% 17.8%
Turnover 16.2% 16.1%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 9.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken ATL MIN
Shot Blocked 8.7% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 33.4% 23.5%