Las Vegas at Dallas: Box Score Simulation

Monday Jun 15, 2026 8:00 pm - Arlington, TX
Odds: Las Vegas by 2.5, Total Points: 177.5

Matchup Menu: LVA @ DAL

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NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring LVA DAL
Points 90.3 85.3
Total Points   175.6
Points From 2-Pointers 51.7 46.5
Points From 3-Pointers 23.2 24.6
Points From Free Throws 15.4 14.3
Shooting LVA DAL
Field Goals Made 33.6 31.4
Field Goals Attempted 69.3 72.9
Field Goal % 48.5% 43.1%
2 Pointers Made 25.9 23.2
2 Pointers Attempted 47.2 49.7
2 Point Shooting % 54.8% 46.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 8.2
3 Pointers Attempted 22.1 23.2
3 Point Shooting % 35.0% 35.2%
Free Throws Made 15.4 14.3
Free Throws Attempted 19.1 17.8
Free Throw % 80.6% 80.2%
Ball Control LVA DAL
Rebounds 40.5 40.2
Rebounds - Defensive 32.6 29.8
Rebounds - Offensive 7.9 10.4
Turnovers 10.3 10.2
Blocked Shots 4.0 2.3
Steals 5.1 5.8
Fouls 14.8 16.7

Playing Style Advantage: Dallas

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LVA DAL
Total Possessions 83.2
Effective Scoring Chances 80.8 83.4
% of Possessions with LVA DAL
2 Point Attempt 51.3% 52.2%
3 Point Attempt 24.0% 24.4%
Player Fouled 20.1% 17.8%
Turnover 12.4% 12.3%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 6.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken LVA DAL
Shot Blocked 3.2% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 20.9% 24.1%