Las Vegas at Phoenix: Box Score Simulation

Sunday Jun 29, 2025 6:00 pm - Phoenix, AZ
Odds: Phoenix by 5.5, Total Points: 168

Matchup Menu: LVA @ PHX

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NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring LVA PHX
Points 92.1 80.0
Total Points   172.2
Points From 2-Pointers 46.2 39.1
Points From 3-Pointers 29.2 23.0
Points From Free Throws 16.8 17.9
Shooting LVA PHX
Field Goals Made 32.8 27.2
Field Goals Attempted 67.3 65.1
Field Goal % 48.8% 41.8%
2 Pointers Made 23.1 19.6
2 Pointers Attempted 41.7 42.3
2 Point Shooting % 55.4% 46.3%
3 Pointers Made 9.7 7.7
3 Pointers Attempted 25.6 22.9
3 Point Shooting % 38.0% 33.5%
Free Throws Made 16.8 17.9
Free Throws Attempted 20.6 22.7
Free Throw % 81.5% 78.8%
Ball Control LVA PHX
Rebounds 40.1 36.7
Rebounds - Defensive 32.2 28.7
Rebounds - Offensive 7.9 8.0
Turnovers 11.0 12.7
Blocked Shots 4.7 2.0
Steals 6.5 6.6
Fouls 18.0 18.0

Playing Style Advantage: Phoenix

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LVA PHX
Total Possessions 83.0
Effective Scoring Chances 79.9 78.3
% of Possessions with LVA PHX
2 Point Attempt 45.5% 45.5%
3 Point Attempt 27.9% 24.7%
Player Fouled 21.7% 21.7%
Turnover 13.2% 15.3%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken LVA PHX
Shot Blocked 3.2% 7.0%
Offensive Rebound 21.6% 19.9%