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NC State at Florida St: Point Spread Analysis
Saturday Jan 10, 2026 12:00 pm -
Tallahassee, FL
Odds:
NC State by 4.5,
Total Points:
160
Matchup Menu: NCST @ FSU
ATS Predictions
| Pick | Model | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Florida St +4.5 | Official TR Pick | Florida St 51% odds to cover |
| Florida St +4.5 | Similar Games | Florida St 52% odds to cover |
| Florida St +4.5 | Decision Tree | Florida St 51% odds to cover |
| NC State -4.5 | Power Rating Model | NC State 51% odds to cover |
| NC State -4.5 | Predictive Ratings | NC State 57% odds to cover |
ATS Situational Trends
| Record | NCST | adv | FSU |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 16-17-1 | 19-13-1 | |
| vs Division | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | |
| vs Conference | 9-10-1 | 12-7-1 | |
| Streak | L2 | W3 | |
| Last 5 | 1-4-0 | 4-1-0 | |
| Last 10 | 2-8-0 | 7-3-0 | |
| Home | 7-8-1 | 10-6-1 | |
| Away | 9-9-0 | 9-7-0 |
NC State Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/03 | Home | NC Central | -31.0 | W by 48 | +17.0 |
| 11/07 | Home | UAB | -20.0 | W by 24 | +4.0 |
| 11/12 | Home | NC Greensboro | -30.5 | W by 46 | +15.5 |
| 11/17 | Home | VCU | -11.5 | W by 6 | -5.5 |
| 11/24 | Neutral | Seton Hall | -7.5 | L by 11 | -18.5 |
| 11/25 | Neutral | Boise St | -6.5 | W by 11 | +4.5 |
| 11/26 | Neutral | Texas | -1.0 | L by 5 | -6.0 |
| 12/03 | Away | Auburn | +5.5 | L by 10 | -4.5 |
| 12/06 | Home | NC Asheville | -28.0 | W by 12 | -16.0 |
| 12/10 | Home | Liberty | -12.5 | W by 40 | +27.5 |
| 12/13 | Home | Kansas | -1.5 | L by 1 | -2.5 |
| 12/17 | Neutral | Texas So | -34.0 | W by 36 | +2.0 |
| 12/21 | Neutral | Mississippi | -7.5 | W by 14 | +6.5 |
| 12/31 | Home | Wake Forest | -10.0 | W by 13 | +3.0 |
| 01/03 | Home | Virginia | -4.0 | L by 15 | -19.0 |
| 01/06 | Away | Boston College | -12.0 | W by 8 | -4.0 |
| 01/10 | Away | Florida St | -4.5 | W by 44 | +39.5 |
| 01/17 | Home | Georgia Tech | -17.5 | L by 4 | -21.5 |
| 01/20 | Away | Clemson | +2.5 | W by 4 | +6.5 |
| 01/24 | Away | Pittsburgh | -5.5 | W by 9 | +3.5 |
| 01/27 | Home | Syracuse | -11.0 | W by 20 | +9.0 |
| 01/31 | Away | Wake Forest | -6.0 | W by 18 | +12.0 |
| 02/03 | Away | SMU | (Pick) | W by 1 | +1.0 |
| 02/07 | Home | Virginia Tech | -9.0 | W by 9 | 0.0 |
| 02/09 | Away | Louisville | +7.5 | L by 41 | -33.5 |
| 02/14 | Home | Miami | -6.5 | L by 1 | -7.5 |
| 02/17 | Home | North Carolina | -8.0 | W by 24 | +16.0 |
| 02/24 | Away | Virginia | +6.5 | L by 29 | -22.5 |
| 02/28 | Away | Notre Dame | -6.5 | L by 6 | -12.5 |
| 03/02 | Home | Duke | +9.5 | L by 29 | -19.5 |
| 03/07 | Home | Stanford | -9.5 | L by 1 | -10.5 |
| 03/11 | Neutral | Pittsburgh | -8.5 | W by 10 | +1.5 |
| 03/12 | Neutral | Virginia | +6.5 | L by 7 | -0.5 |
| 03/17 | Neutral | Texas | -1.5 | L by 2 | -3.5 |
Florida St Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04 | Home | Alcorn St | -27.0 | W by 32 | +5.0 |
| 11/07 | Home | Alabama St | -25.0 | W by 37 | +12.0 |
| 11/11 | Away | Florida | +18.0 | L by 2 | +16.0 |
| 11/18 | Home | UT Martin | -20.0 | W by 14 | -6.0 |
| 11/21 | Home | Georgia So | -18.5 | W by 26 | +7.5 |
| 11/25 | Home | CS Bakersfield | -25.0 | W by 30 | +5.0 |
| 11/28 | Neutral | Texas A&M | -1.5 | L by 36 | -37.5 |
| 12/02 | Home | Georgia | -1.0 | L by 34 | -35.0 |
| 12/06 | Neutral | Houston | +13.0 | L by 15 | -2.0 |
| 12/13 | Neutral | UMass | -13.0 | L by 8 | -21.0 |
| 12/16 | Away | Dayton | +7.0 | L by 28 | -21.0 |
| 12/19 | Home | Miss Valley St | -39.5 | W by 47 | +7.5 |
| 12/22 | Home | Jacksonville | -23.5 | W by 24 | +0.5 |
| 12/30 | Away | North Carolina | +12.0 | L by 13 | -1.0 |
| 01/03 | Home | Duke | +16.5 | L by 4 | +12.5 |
| 01/10 | Home | NC State | +4.5 | L by 44 | -39.5 |
| 01/13 | Away | Syracuse | +5.0 | L by 8 | -3.0 |
| 01/17 | Home | Wake Forest | +1.0 | L by 1 | 0.0 |
| 01/20 | Away | Miami | +11.0 | W by 2 | +13.0 |
| 01/24 | Away | SMU | +12.0 | L by 3 | +9.0 |
| 01/28 | Home | California | -3.5 | W by 2 | -1.5 |
| 01/31 | Home | Stanford | -3.5 | W by 8 | +4.5 |
| 02/07 | Away | Notre Dame | +1.0 | W by 3 | +4.0 |
| 02/10 | Home | Virginia | +8.0 | L by 3 | +5.0 |
| 02/14 | Away | Virginia Tech | +5.0 | W by 23 | +28.0 |
| 02/17 | Home | Boston College | -12.0 | W by 8 | -4.0 |
| 02/21 | Away | Clemson | +8.5 | W by 5 | +13.5 |
| 02/24 | Home | Miami | +2.5 | L by 10 | -7.5 |
| 02/28 | Away | Georgia Tech | -5.5 | W by 9 | +3.5 |
| 03/04 | Away | Pittsburgh | -1.5 | W by 1 | -0.5 |
| 03/07 | Home | SMU | -1.5 | W by 13 | +11.5 |
| 03/11 | Neutral | California | -2.5 | W by 6 | +3.5 |
| 03/12 | Neutral | Duke | +16.5 | L by 1 | +15.5 |