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UT Rio Grande at New Orleans: Box Score Simulation

Saturday Feb 7, 2026 6:00 pm - New Orleans, LA
Odds: UT Rio Grande Valley by 1, Total Points: 151

Matchup Menu: UTRGV @ NORL

More Games From Feb 7, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring UTRGV NORL
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting UTRGV NORL
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 59.2 53.1
Field Goal % 44.3% 42.6%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 31.5 36.2
2 Point Shooting % 53.1% 49.3%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 27.7 17.0
3 Point Shooting % 34.2% 28.4%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 19.7 30.1
Free Throw % 78.0% 73.8%
Ball Control UTRGV NORL
Rebounds 32.8 37.4
Rebounds - Defensive 22.8 25.2
Rebounds - Offensive 10.0 12.2
Turnovers 9.7 11.2
Blocked Shots 3.1 3.1
Steals 6.0 5.1
Fouls 18.9 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UTRGV NORL
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with UTRGV NORL
2 Point Attempt 38.3% 42.8%
3 Point Attempt 33.7% 20.1%
Player Fouled 21.9% 26.6%
Turnover 13.7% 15.8%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken UTRGV NORL
Shot Blocked 5.8% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 28.4% 34.9%