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Buffalo at UMass: Over/Under Analysis

Saturday Feb 21, 2026 6:00 pm - Amherst, MA
Odds: Massachusetts by 7.5, Total Points: 151.5

Matchup Menu: BUFF @ MASS

More Games From Feb 21, 2026

Over/Under Predictions

Pick	Model	Confidence
Under 154.5	Official TR Pick	55% odds to go under
Under 154.5	Similar Games	52% odds to go under
Under 154.5	Decision Tree	55% odds to go under

Over/Under Situational Trends

Record	BUFF	MASS
Season	16-14-0	19-12-0
vs Division	0-0-0	0-0-0
vs Conference	10-9-0	13-7-0
Streak	Un 1	Un 1
Last 5	2-3-0	3-2-0
Last 10	4-6-0	7-3-0
Home	7-6-0	8-6-0
Away	9-8-0	11-6-0

Records denote overs-unders-pushes

Buffalo Detailed Over/Under Performance

Date	H/A/N	Opponent	Total	Score	Result	+/-
11/03	Home	Southern Miss	154.0	85-79	Over	+10.0
11/07	Home	Green Bay	148.0	83-76	Over	+11.0
11/11	Away	DePaul	153.5	66-53	Under	-34.5
11/15	Home	RIT	--	80-64	Under	--
11/18	Home	Vermont	141.5	94-90	Over	+42.5
11/24	Neutral	VMI	151.0	78-70	Under	-3.0
11/26	Neutral	Bucknell	147.0	73-71	Under	-3.0
11/29	Away	Canisius	139.0	71-53	Under	-15.0
12/06	Home	St Bonaventure	144.0	69-77	Over	+2.0
12/09	Away	UMBC	145.5	83-79	Over	+16.5
12/14	Away	E Carolina	146.5	70-73	Under	-3.5
12/20	Away	W Michigan	151.0	88-71	Over	+8.0
12/22	Home	Penn St.-Behrend	--	92-63	Under	--
12/31	Away	N Illinois	155.0	81-67	Under	-7.0
01/03	Home	Ball St	144.5	85-72	Over	+12.5
01/10	Away	Ohio	156.0	80-91	Over	+15.0
01/13	Home	Kent St	165.5	81-87	Over	+2.5
01/17	Away	Miami OH	162.5	102-105	Over	+44.5
01/20	Home	Akron	166.5	63-82	Under	-21.5
01/23	Home	UMass	159.5	67-68	Under	-24.5
01/27	Away	Bowling Green	150.0	89-78	Over	+17.0
01/31	Home	Ohio	156.5	83-95	Over	+21.5
02/03	Home	Miami OH	164.5	71-73	Under	-20.5
02/07	Away	S Alabama	144.0	69-81	Over	+6.0
02/11	Away	Ball St	141.5	63-53	Under	-25.5
02/17	Home	N Illinois	147.0	70-72	Under	-5.0
02/21	Away	UMass	151.5	86-82	Over	+16.5
02/24	Away	Akron	160.5	85-99	Over	+23.5
02/28	Home	C Michigan	151.5	70-75	Under	-6.5
03/03	Home	E Michigan	144.5	72-67	Under	-5.5
03/06	Away	Toledo	155.5	78-98	Over	+20.5
03/12	Neutral	Akron	158.5	70-73	Under	-15.5

UMass Detailed Over/Under Performance

Date	H/A/N	Opponent	Total	Score	Result	+/-
11/03	Home	Marshall	152.0	72-78	Under	-2.0
11/08	Home	Albany	155.5	83-62	Under	-10.5
11/13	Home	Le Moyne	153.5	94-80	Over	+20.5
11/16	Home	C Connecticut	141.0	84-77	Over	+20.0
11/21	Neutral	Charleston	161.5	65-69	Under	-27.5
11/22	Neutral	Green Bay	146.0	75-79	Over	+8.0
11/24	Neutral	Oregon St	148.5	73-65	Under	-10.5
12/03	Home	Harvard	143.5	78-71	Over	+5.5
12/06	Home	UMass Lowell	156.5	80-60	Under	-16.5
12/10	Neutral	Boston College	143.0	76-74	Over	+7.0
12/13	Neutral	Florida St	165.5	103-95	Over	+32.5
12/20	Home	Kent St	163.5	59-69	Under	-35.5
12/22	Home	Massachusetts-Boston	--	91-40	Under	--
12/30	Away	E Michigan	148.5	74-80	Over	+5.5
01/03	Home	Bowling Green	152.0	100-101	Over	+49.0
01/06	Away	Ohio	161.0	83-86	Over	+8.0
01/10	Home	Ball St	147.0	79-71	Over	+3.0
01/13	Away	W Michigan	158.0	85-82	Over	+9.0
01/17	Away	N Illinois	156.5	68-70	Under	-18.5
01/20	Home	Toledo	163.5	84-82	Over	+2.5
01/23	Away	Buffalo	159.5	68-67	Under	-24.5
01/27	Away	Miami OH	164.5	84-86	Over	+5.5
01/31	Home	E Michigan	148.5	70-67	Under	-11.5
02/03	Home	C Michigan	151.5	95-89	Over	+32.5
02/07	Away	Coastal Car	147.5	91-94	Over	+37.5
02/13	Away	Akron	162.5	92-99	Over	+28.5
02/17	Home	Miami OH	164.0	77-86	Under	-1.0
02/21	Home	Buffalo	151.5	82-86	Over	+16.5
02/24	Away	Ball St	143.5	73-74	Over	+3.5
02/28	Away	Bowling Green	150.5	62-81	Under	-7.5
03/03	Home	Ohio	156.5	94-82	Over	+19.5
03/12	Neutral	Miami OH	160.5	87-83	Over	+9.5
03/13	Neutral	Toledo	158.5	67-77	Under	-14.5