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Rider at Mt St Mary's: Box Score Simulation

Saturday Jan 24, 2026 4:00 pm - Emmitsburg, MD
Odds: Mount St. Mary's by 8.5, Total Points: 139.5

Matchup Menu: RID @ MSM

More Games From Jan 24, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring RID MSM
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting RID MSM
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 57.7 54.4
Field Goal % 36.8% 47.6%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 40.0 31.7
2 Point Shooting % 40.9% 54.9%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 17.7 22.7
3 Point Shooting % 27.6% 37.4%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 19.7 17.8
Free Throw % 69.7% 67.2%
Ball Control RID MSM
Rebounds 32.3 39.3
Rebounds - Defensive 20.7 28.2
Rebounds - Offensive 11.6 11.0
Turnovers 8.4 11.8
Blocked Shots 2.7 2.5
Steals 7.1 4.9
Fouls 12.9 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats RID MSM
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with RID MSM
2 Point Attempt 50.3% 40.1%
3 Point Attempt 22.4% 28.7%
Player Fouled 21.1% 19.3%
Turnover 12.5% 17.7%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 10.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken RID MSM
Shot Blocked 4.7% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 29.0% 34.7%