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Missouri St at Xavier: Box Score Simulation

Friday Dec 12, 2025 7:00 pm - Cincinnati, OH
Odds: Xavier by 18.5, Total Points: 151.5

Matchup Menu: MOSU @ XAV

More Games From Dec 12, 2025

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring MOSU XAV
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting MOSU XAV
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 58.1 60.0
Field Goal % 47.1% 50.5%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 37.2 36.1
2 Point Shooting % 54.6% 58.9%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 20.9 23.9
3 Point Shooting % 33.8% 37.9%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 22.5 22.0
Free Throw % 67.4% 75.4%
Ball Control MOSU XAV
Rebounds 32.7 34.5
Rebounds - Defensive 24.1 25.9
Rebounds - Offensive 8.6 8.6
Turnovers 9.9 7.7
Blocked Shots 2.9 5.3
Steals 4.4 5.8
Fouls 15.1 16.1

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MOSU XAV
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with MOSU XAV
2 Point Attempt 44.9% 44.1%
3 Point Attempt 25.3% 29.2%
Player Fouled 22.3% 21.0%
Turnover 13.7% 10.7%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken MOSU XAV
Shot Blocked 9.0% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 24.9% 26.2%