Walk-forward evaluation of our prediction model against past tournaments. Each prediction uses only ratings available before that match — no lookahead bias. Click a tournament to see match-by-match results.
| Model | Accuracy | Avg Brier | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley-Terry | 54.2% | 0.6067 | 334 |
| Glicko-2 | 55.1% | 0.6120 | 334 |
| Grid-Optimized | 54.5% | 0.6209 | 334 |
| Elo (walk-forward) | 54.0% | 0.6352 | 341 |
| Combined (Elo+Roster) | 54.2% | 0.6408 | 334 |
Jun 20 – Jul 14, 2024
Jun 14 – Jul 14, 2024
Jan 12 – Feb 10, 2024
Nov 20 – Dec 18, 2022
Jun 13 – Jul 10, 2021
Jun 11 – Jul 11, 2021
Jun 14 – Jul 15, 2018
Walk-forward design: For each match, predictions use pre-tournament Grid-Optimized ratings (the same composite used for our live predictions). The model never sees future results.
Brier score: Measures probability calibration. Lower is better. A coin-flip baseline scores 0.667 for three-way outcomes (home/draw/away). Our score of 0.621 indicates the model adds meaningful predictive value.
Accuracy: Percentage of matches where the highest-probability outcome matched the actual result. For context, always picking the favorite yields roughly 45% accuracy in international football.
