Championship probabilities from 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations.
Mkt = consensus of sportsbook & Polymarket odds (Apr 2026).
| Rank | Team | Conf | Rating▼ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | UEFA | 1780.2 |
| 2 | Argentina | CONMEBOL | 1764.7 |
| 3 | France | UEFA | 1758.8 |
| 4 | England | UEFA | 1748.6 |
| 5 | Portugal | UEFA | 1723.0 |
| 6 | Netherlands | UEFA | 1713.8 |
| 7 | Brazil | CONMEBOL | 1713.2 |
| 8 | Belgium | UEFA | 1709.7 |
| 9 | Morocco | CAF | 1701.1 |
| 10 | Germany | UEFA | 1698.8 |
| 11 | Colombia | CONMEBOL | 1691.0 |
| 12 | Japan | AFC | 1686.1 |
| 13 | Norway | UEFA | 1685.9 |
| 14 | Switzerland | UEFA | 1685.3 |
| 15 | Italy | UEFA | 1678.3 |
| 16 | Mexico | CONCACAF | 1678.0 |
| 17 | Croatia | UEFA | 1677.4 |
| 18 | Senegal | CAF | 1675.7 |
| 19 | Denmark | UEFA | 1660.8 |
| 20 | Austria | UEFA | 1651.6 |
| 21 | Uruguay | CONMEBOL | 1651.3 |
| 22 | Algeria | CAF | 1648.4 |
| 23 | Nigeria | CAF | 1643.8 |
| 24 | Turkey | UEFA | 1641.6 |
| 25 | United States | CONCACAF | 1640.1 |
| 26 | Iran | AFC | 1639.1 |
| 27 | Ivory Coast | CAF | 1635.8 |
| 28 | Egypt | CAF | 1632.5 |
| 29 | Canada | CONCACAF | 1628.9 |
| 30 | Ecuador | CONMEBOL | 1627.0 |
| 31 | Ukraine | UEFA | 1624.5 |
| 32 | South Korea | AFC | 1624.0 |
| 33 | Sweden | UEFA | 1620.8 |
| 34 | Greece | UEFA | 1620.3 |
| 35 | Australia | AFC | 1620.0 |
| 36 | Russia | UEFA | 1618.3 |
| 37 | Serbia | UEFA | 1618.3 |
| 38 | Poland | UEFA | 1614.8 |
| 39 | Mali | CAF | 1613.7 |
| 40 | Paraguay | CONMEBOL | 1612.5 |
| 41 | DR Congo | CAF | 1612.1 |
| 42 | Cameroon | CAF | 1605.6 |
| 43 | Scotland | UEFA | 1605.6 |
| 44 | Slovakia | UEFA | 1602.9 |
| 45 | Czech Republic | UEFA | 1601.8 |
| 46 | Hungary | UEFA | 1599.0 |
| 47 | Romania | UEFA | 1596.2 |
| 48 | Slovenia | UEFA | 1595.8 |
| 49 | Wales | UEFA | 1591.2 |
| 50 | Venezuela | CONMEBOL | 1587.9 |
