Model accuracy of 57.1% beat the always-pick-favorite baseline (45%) by 12.1 points. Brier score of 0.522 beat the coin-flip baseline (0.667) by 0.145.
Head-to-head performance of different rating models on this tournament. “Elo (walk-forward)” updates ratings after each match; snapshot-based models use pre-tournament ratings for all matches.
| Model | Accuracy | Brier | Log Loss | Correct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo (walk-forward)Best | 57.1% | 0.5216 | 0.9300 | 16/28 |
| Combined (Elo+Roster) | 50.0% | 0.5872 | 1.0379 | 12/24 |
| Grid-Optimized | 50.0% | 0.5883 | 1.0400 | 12/24 |
| Glicko-2 | 45.8% | 0.5993 | 1.0274 | 11/24 |
| Bradley-Terry | 50.0% | 0.6049 | 1.0664 | 12/24 |
Ratings before the tournament began. Only participating teams shown.
| Date | Match | Score | H% | D% | A% | xG | Pred | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 13 | BRAvVEN | 3–0 | 97 | 2 | 1 | 5.0–0.4 | BRA | ✓ |
| Jun 13 | COLvECU | 1–0 | 76 | 17 | 7 | 2.5–0.7 | COL | ✓ |
| Jun 14 | ARGvCHI | 1–1 | 60 | 25 | 16 | 1.9–0.9 | ARG | ✗ |
| Jun 14 | PARvBOL | 3–1 | 60 | 24 | 15 |
| 1472 |
| 1697 |
| 68 | VenezuelaVEN | 1505 | 1505 | 1495 | 1692 |
| 69 | EcuadorECU | 1505 | 1505 | 1495 | 1695 |
| 77 | ParaguayPAR | 1498 | 1498 | 1502 | 1676 |
| 1.9–0.9 |
| PAR |
| ✓ |
| Jun 17 | COLvVEN | 0–0 | 79 | 15 | 6 | 2.7–0.6 | COL | ✗ |
| Jun 17 | BRAvPER | 4–0 | 94 | 5 | 1 | 4.2–0.5 | BRA | ✓ |
| Jun 18 | CHIvBOL | 1–0 | 86 | 11 | 3 | 3.1–0.5 | CHI | ✓ |
| Jun 18 | ARGvURU | 1–0 | 54 | 27 | 20 | 1.8–1.0 | ARG | ✓ |
| Jun 20 | VENvECU | 2–2 | 38 | 30 | 32 | 1.4–1.2 | VEN | ✗ |
| Jun 20 | COLvPER | 1–2 | 67 | 22 | 12 | 2.1–0.8 | COL | ✗ |
| Jun 21 | URUvCHI | 1–1 | 34 | 30 | 36 | 1.3–1.3 | CHI | ✗ |
| Jun 21 | ARGvPAR | 1–0 | 83 | 12 | 4 | 2.9–0.6 | ARG | ✓ |
| Jun 23 | ECUvPER | 2–2 | 19 | 26 | 55 | 0.9–1.8 | PER | ✗ |
| Jun 23 | BRAvCOL | 2–1 | 81 | 13 | 6 | 2.9–0.7 | BRA | ✓ |
| Jun 24 | BOLvURU | 0–2 | 3 | 9 | 89 | 0.5–3.4 | URU | ✓ |
| Jun 24 | CHIvPAR | 0–2 | 64 | 23 | 13 | 2.1–0.8 | CHI | ✗ |
| Jun 27 | BRAvECU | 1–1 | 99 | 1 | 0 | 6.0–0.3 | BRA | ✗ |
| Jun 27 | VENvPER | 0–1 | 22 | 28 | 51 | 1.0–1.7 | PER | ✓ |
| Jun 28 | ARGvBOL | 4–1 | 99 | 1 | 0 | 5.5–0.3 | ARG | ✓ |
| Jun 28 | URUvPAR | 1–0 | 62 | 24 | 14 | 2.0–0.8 | URU | ✓ |
| Jul 2 | PERvPAR | 3–3 | 53 | 27 | 20 | 1.6–0.9 | PER | ✗ |
| Jul 2 | BRAvCHI | 1–0 | 90 | 8 | 2 | 3.4–0.5 | BRA | ✓ |
| Jul 3 | URUvCOL | 0–0 | 33 | 30 | 38 | 1.1–1.2 | COL | ✗ |
| Jul 3 | ARGvECU | 3–0 | 88 | 9 | 3 | 3.1–0.5 | ARG | ✓ |
| Jul 5 | BRAvPER | 1–0 | 93 | 5 | 1 | 3.8–0.4 | BRA | ✓ |
| Jul 6 | ARGvCOL | 1–1 | 57 | 26 | 17 | 1.7–0.8 | ARG | ✗ |
| Jul 9 | PERvCOL | 2–3 | 20 | 27 | 53 | 0.9–1.6 | COL | ✓ |
| Jul 10 | BRAvARG | 0–1 | 65 | 22 | 14 | 2.0–0.8 | BRA | ✗ |
