Model accuracy of 48.4% beat the always-pick-favorite baseline (45%) by 3.4 points. Brier score of 0.699 was near the coin-flip baseline (0.667).
Head-to-head performance of different rating models on this tournament. “Elo (walk-forward)” updates ratings after each match; snapshot-based models use pre-tournament ratings for all matches.
| Model | Accuracy | Brier | Log Loss | Correct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley-TerryBest | 56.3% | 0.6355 | 1.1366 | 36/64 |
| Grid-Optimized | 51.6% | 0.6380 | 1.1193 | 33/64 |
| Glicko-2 | 57.8% | 0.6495 | 1.1253 | 37/64 |
| Combined (Elo+Roster) | 50.0% | 0.6592 | 1.1538 | 32/64 |
| Elo (walk-forward) | 48.4% | 0.6990 | 1.2077 | 31/64 |
Ratings before the tournament began. Only participating teams shown.
| Date | Match | Score | H% | D% | A% | xG | Pred | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14 | RUSvKSA | 5–0 | 13 | 21 | 66 | 0.9–2.3 | KSA | ✗ |
| Jun 15 | EGYvURU | 0–1 | 44 | 29 | 27 | 1.5–1.1 | EGY | ✗ |
| Jun 15 | MARvIRN | 0–1 | 17 | 26 | 57 | 0.9–1.8 | IRN | ✓ |
| Jun 15 | PORvESP | 3–3 | 55 | 26 | 19 |
| 1597 |
| 1403 |
| 1674 |
| 7 | FranceFRA | 1596 | 1596 | 1404 | 1710 |
| 8 | SpainESP | 1585 | 1585 | 1415 | 1745 |
| 9 | EnglandENG | 1577 | 1577 | 1423 | 1696 |
| 10 | SwitzerlandSUI | 1572 | 1572 | 1428 | 1677 |
| 12 | PolandPOL | 1568 | 1568 | 1432 | 1695 |
| 13 | ColombiaCOL | 1562 | 1562 | 1438 | 1716 |
| 15 | CroatiaCRO | 1559 | 1559 | 1441 | 1687 |
| 16 | IranIRN | 1558 | 1558 | 1442 | 1653 |
| 18 | PeruPER | 1555 | 1555 | 1445 | 1705 |
| 19 | South KoreaKOR | 1552 | 1552 | 1448 | 1641 |
| 20 | Costa RicaCRC | 1549 | 1549 | 1451 | 1653 |
| 21 | IcelandISL | 1548 | 1548 | 1452 | 1675 |
| 24 | JapanJPN | 1545 | 1545 | 1455 | 1624 |
| 26 | UruguayURU | 1536 | 1536 | 1464 | 1703 |
| 27 | DenmarkDEN | 1530 | 1530 | 1470 | 1692 |
| 29 | SenegalSEN | 1530 | 1530 | 1470 | 1670 |
| 30 | PanamaPAN | 1529 | 1529 | 1471 | 1627 |
| 34 | AustraliaAUS | 1526 | 1526 | 1474 | 1633 |
| 35 | SwedenSWE | 1523 | 1523 | 1477 | 1682 |
| 38 | SerbiaSRB | 1519 | 1519 | 1481 | 1670 |
| 41 | Saudi ArabiaKSA | 1518 | 1518 | 1482 | 1597 |
| 51 | TunisiaTUN | 1509 | 1509 | 1491 | 1636 |
| 69 | EgyptEGY | 1496 | 1496 | 1504 | 1644 |
| 70 | MoroccoMAR | 1495 | 1495 | 1505 | 1655 |
| 77 | RussiaRUS | 1492 | 1492 | 1508 | 1631 |
| 117 | NigeriaNGA | 1468 | 1468 | 1532 | 1635 |
| 1.8–0.9 |
| POR |
| ✗ |
| Jun 16 | FRAvAUS | 2–1 | 75 | 18 | 8 | 2.5–0.7 | FRA | ✓ |
| Jun 16 | ARGvISL | 1–1 | 80 | 14 | 6 | 2.7–0.6 | ARG | ✗ |
| Jun 16 | PERvDEN | 0–1 | 56 | 26 | 18 | 1.8–0.9 | PER | ✗ |
| Jun 16 | CROvNGA | 2–0 | 65 | 22 | 12 | 2.1–0.8 | CRO | ✓ |
| Jun 17 | CRCvSRB | 0–1 | 59 | 25 | 16 | 1.9–0.9 | CRC | ✗ |
| Jun 17 | GERvMEX | 0–1 | 68 | 21 | 11 | 2.2–0.8 | GER | ✗ |
| Jun 17 | BRAvSUI | 1–1 | 66 | 22 | 12 | 2.1–0.8 | BRA | ✗ |
| Jun 18 | SWEvKOR | 1–0 | 9 | 19 | 72 | 0.7–2.3 | KOR | ✗ |
| Jun 18 | BELvPAN | 3–0 | 93 | 5 | 1 | 3.9–0.4 | BEL | ✓ |
| Jun 18 | TUNvENG | 1–2 | 21 | 27 | 52 | 1.0–1.7 | ENG | ✓ |
| Jun 19 | COLvJPN | 1–2 | 32 | 30 | 39 | 1.2–1.4 | JPN | ✓ |
| Jun 19 | POLvSEN | 1–2 | 25 | 28 | 47 | 1.1–1.6 | SEN | ✓ |
| Jun 19 | RUSvEGY | 3–1 | 14 | 22 | 64 | 0.9–2.2 | EGY | ✗ |
| Jun 20 | PORvMAR | 1–0 | 84 | 12 | 4 | 3.0–0.6 | POR | ✓ |
| Jun 20 | URUvKSA | 1–0 | 50 | 28 | 22 | 1.7–1.0 | URU | ✓ |
| Jun 20 | IRNvESP | 0–1 | 36 | 30 | 34 | 1.3–1.3 | IRN | ✗ |
| Jun 21 | DENvAUS | 1–1 | 35 | 30 | 36 | 1.3–1.3 | AUS | ✗ |
| Jun 21 | FRAvPER | 1–0 | 79 | 15 | 6 | 2.7–0.6 | FRA | ✓ |
| Jun 21 | ARGvCRO | 0–3 | 65 | 22 | 13 | 2.1–0.8 | ARG | ✗ |
| Jun 22 | BRAvCRC | 2–0 | 88 | 9 | 3 | 3.3–0.5 | BRA | ✓ |
| Jun 22 | NGAvISL | 2–0 | 14 | 24 | 62 | 0.8–2.0 | ISL | ✗ |
| Jun 22 | SRBvSUI | 1–2 | 8 | 18 | 74 | 0.7–2.4 | SUI | ✓ |
| Jun 23 | BELvTUN | 5–2 | 84 | 12 | 4 | 3.0–0.6 | BEL | ✓ |
| Jun 23 | KORvMEX | 1–2 | 9 | 18 | 73 | 0.7–2.4 | MEX | ✓ |
| Jun 23 | GERvSWE | 2–1 | 97 | 3 | 1 | 4.6–0.4 | GER | ✓ |
| Jun 24 | ENGvPAN | 6–1 | 88 | 9 | 3 | 3.3–0.5 | ENG | ✓ |
| Jun 24 | JPNvSEN | 2–2 | 23 | 28 | 49 | 1.0–1.6 | SEN | ✗ |
| Jun 24 | POLvCOL | 0–3 | 41 | 30 | 30 | 1.4–1.2 | POL | ✗ |
| Jun 25 | RUSvURU | 0–3 | 12 | 20 | 68 | 0.9–2.3 | URU | ✓ |
| Jun 25 | KSAvEGY | 2–1 | 26 | 29 | 46 | 1.1–1.5 | EGY | ✗ |
| Jun 25 | ESPvMAR | 2–2 | 79 | 15 | 6 | 2.7–0.6 | ESP | ✗ |
| Jun 25 | IRNvPOR | 1–1 | 12 | 22 | 66 | 0.8–2.1 | POR | ✗ |
| Jun 26 | AUSvPER | 0–2 | 35 | 30 | 36 | 1.3–1.3 | PER | ✓ |
| Jun 26 | DENvFRA | 0–0 | 3 | 9 | 88 | 0.5–3.3 | FRA | ✗ |
| Jun 26 | NGAvARG | 1–2 | 3 | 10 | 88 | 0.5–3.3 | ARG | ✓ |
| Jun 26 | ISLvCRO | 1–2 | 13 | 23 | 65 | 0.8–2.1 | CRO | ✓ |
| Jun 27 | KORvGER | 2–0 | 2 | 6 | 93 | 0.4–3.8 | GER | ✗ |
| Jun 27 | MEXvSWE | 0–3 | 94 | 5 | 1 | 4.1–0.4 | MEX | ✗ |
| Jun 27 | SRBvBRA | 0–2 | 1 | 3 | 97 | 0.4–4.7 | BRA | ✓ |
| Jun 27 | SUIvCRC | 2–2 | 75 | 17 | 8 | 2.5–0.7 | SUI | ✗ |
| Jun 28 | JPNvPOL | 0–1 | 53 | 27 | 20 | 1.7–1.0 | JPN | ✗ |
| Jun 28 | SENvCOL | 0–1 | 59 | 25 | 16 | 1.9–0.9 | SEN | ✗ |
| Jun 28 | PANvTUN | 1–2 | 14 | 23 | 64 | 0.8–2.0 | TUN | ✓ |
| Jun 28 | ENGvBEL | 0–1 | 17 | 26 | 57 | 0.9–1.9 | BEL | ✓ |
| Jun 30 | FRAvARG | 4–3 | 44 | 29 | 27 | 1.4–1.0 | FRA | ✓ |
| Jun 30 | URUvPOR | 2–1 | 6 | 15 | 79 | 0.6–2.5 | POR | ✗ |
| Jul 1 | RUSvESP | 1–1 | 1 | 5 | 94 | 0.4–4.0 | ESP | ✗ |
| Jul 1 | CROvDEN | 1–1 | 66 | 22 | 12 | 1.9–0.7 | CRO | ✗ |
| Jul 2 | BRAvMEX | 2–0 | 52 | 27 | 21 | 1.6–0.9 | BRA | ✓ |
| Jul 2 | BELvJPN | 3–2 | 83 | 13 | 5 | 2.7–0.5 | BEL | ✓ |
| Jul 3 | SWEvSUI | 1–0 | 9 | 19 | 72 | 0.6–2.2 | SUI | ✗ |
| Jul 3 | COLvENG | 1–1 | 23 | 28 | 49 | 0.9–1.5 | ENG | ✗ |
| Jul 6 | URUvFRA | 0–2 | 9 | 19 | 73 | 0.6–2.2 | FRA | ✓ |
| Jul 6 | BRAvBEL | 1–2 | 31 | 30 | 39 | 1.1–1.3 | BEL | ✓ |
| Jul 7 | SWEvENG | 0–2 | 9 | 19 | 73 | 0.6–2.2 | ENG | ✓ |
| Jul 7 | RUSvCRO | 2–2 | 3 | 9 | 88 | 0.5–3.2 | CRO | ✗ |
| Jul 10 | FRAvBEL | 1–0 | 21 | 28 | 51 | 0.9–1.5 | BEL | ✗ |
| Jul 11 | CROvENG | 2–1 | 25 | 29 | 46 | 1.0–1.4 | ENG | ✗ |
| Jul 14 | BELvENG | 2–0 | 72 | 19 | 9 | 2.2–0.7 | BEL | ✓ |
| Jul 15 | FRAvCRO | 4–2 | 67 | 22 | 12 | 2.0–0.7 | FRA | ✓ |
