Model accuracy of 52.9% beat the always-pick-favorite baseline (45%) by 7.9 points. Brier score of 0.685 was near the coin-flip baseline (0.667).
Head-to-head performance of different rating models on this tournament. “Elo (walk-forward)” updates ratings after each match; snapshot-based models use pre-tournament ratings for all matches.
| Model | Accuracy | Brier | Log Loss | Correct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glicko-2Best | 47.1% | 0.6791 | 1.2038 | 24/51 |
| Bradley-Terry | 47.1% | 0.6813 | 1.2047 | 24/51 |
| Elo (walk-forward) | 52.9% | 0.6852 | 1.2146 | 27/51 |
| Grid-Optimized | 51.0% | 0.6899 | 1.2242 | 26/51 |
| Combined (Elo+Roster) | 51.0% | 0.6940 | 1.2325 | 26/51 |
Ratings before the tournament began. Only participating teams shown.
| Date | Match | Score | H% | D% | A% | xG | Pred | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14 | GERvSCO | 5–1 | 79 | 14 | 7 | 2.8–0.7 | GER | ✓ |
| Jun 15 | HUNvSUI | 1–3 | 21 | 27 | 52 | 1.0–1.7 | SUI | ✓ |
| Jun 15 | ESPvCRO | 3–0 | 42 | 29 | 28 | 1.5–1.2 | ESP | ✓ |
| Jun 15 | ITAvALB | 2–1 | 88 | 10 | 3 |
| 1626 |
| 1374 |
| 1727 |
| 13 | CroatiaCRO | 1625 | 1625 | 1375 | 1719 |
| 15 | ItalyITA | 1618 | 1618 | 1382 | 1722 |
| 17 | GermanyGER | 1609 | 1609 | 1391 | 1722 |
| 23 | DenmarkDEN | 1588 | 1588 | 1412 | 1697 |
| 24 | SwitzerlandSUI | 1587 | 1587 | 1413 | 1682 |
| 27 | UkraineUKR | 1570 | 1570 | 1430 | 1687 |
| 29 | AustriaAUT | 1564 | 1564 | 1436 | 1690 |
| 33 | PolandPOL | 1560 | 1560 | 1440 | 1676 |
| 35 | HungaryHUN | 1555 | 1555 | 1445 | 1664 |
| 37 | SerbiaSRB | 1554 | 1554 | 1446 | 1677 |
| 40 | TurkeyTUR | 1551 | 1551 | 1449 | 1663 |
| 45 | Czech RepublicCZE | 1544 | 1544 | 1456 | 1673 |
| 46 | ScotlandSCO | 1543 | 1543 | 1457 | 1664 |
| 54 | SlovakiaSVK | 1534 | 1534 | 1466 | 1653 |
| 55 | RomaniaROU | 1533 | 1533 | 1467 | 1648 |
| 57 | SloveniaSVN | 1532 | 1532 | 1468 | 1656 |
| 70 | AlbaniaALB | 1504 | 1504 | 1496 | 1633 |
| 76 | GeorgiaGEO | 1497 | 1497 | 1503 | 1627 |
| 3.3–0.5 |
| ITA |
| ✓ |
| Jun 16 | SVNvDEN | 1–1 | 12 | 22 | 66 | 0.8–2.1 | DEN | ✗ |
| Jun 16 | SRBvENG | 0–1 | 3 | 10 | 87 | 0.5–3.2 | ENG | ✓ |
| Jun 16 | POLvNED | 1–2 | 10 | 20 | 69 | 0.8–2.2 | NED | ✓ |
| Jun 17 | AUTvFRA | 0–1 | 3 | 10 | 87 | 0.5–3.2 | FRA | ✓ |
| Jun 17 | ROUvUKR | 3–0 | 19 | 26 | 55 | 0.9–1.8 | UKR | ✗ |
| Jun 17 | BELvSVK | 0–1 | 94 | 5 | 1 | 4.1–0.4 | BEL | ✗ |
| Jun 18 | TURvGEO | 3–1 | 63 | 23 | 14 | 2.0–0.8 | TUR | ✓ |
| Jun 18 | PORvCZE | 2–1 | 88 | 9 | 3 | 3.3–0.5 | POR | ✓ |
| Jun 19 | GERvHUN | 2–0 | 80 | 14 | 6 | 2.9–0.7 | GER | ✓ |
| Jun 19 | SCOvSUI | 1–1 | 12 | 22 | 65 | 0.8–2.1 | SUI | ✗ |
| Jun 19 | CROvALB | 2–2 | 90 | 8 | 2 | 3.5–0.5 | CRO | ✗ |
| Jun 20 | ESPvITA | 1–0 | 48 | 28 | 24 | 1.6–1.1 | ESP | ✓ |
| Jun 20 | SVNvSRB | 1–1 | 27 | 29 | 44 | 1.1–1.5 | SRB | ✗ |
| Jun 20 | DENvENG | 1–1 | 7 | 17 | 76 | 0.7–2.5 | ENG | ✗ |
| Jun 21 | POLvAUT | 1–3 | 33 | 30 | 38 | 1.3–1.4 | AUT | ✓ |
| Jun 21 | NEDvFRA | 0–0 | 16 | 25 | 60 | 0.9–1.9 | FRA | ✗ |
| Jun 21 | SVKvUKR | 1–2 | 28 | 29 | 42 | 1.2–1.5 | UKR | ✓ |
| Jun 22 | BELvROU | 2–0 | 91 | 7 | 2 | 3.6–0.5 | BEL | ✓ |
| Jun 22 | GEOvCZE | 1–1 | 14 | 24 | 62 | 0.8–2.0 | CZE | ✗ |
| Jun 22 | TURvPOR | 0–3 | 3 | 10 | 87 | 0.5–3.2 | POR | ✓ |
| Jun 23 | GERvSUI | 1–1 | 60 | 23 | 16 | 2.1–1.0 | GER | ✗ |
| Jun 23 | SCOvHUN | 0–1 | 33 | 30 | 37 | 1.3–1.3 | HUN | ✓ |
| Jun 24 | ALBvESP | 0–1 | 1 | 3 | 97 | 0.4–4.6 | ESP | ✓ |
| Jun 24 | CROvITA | 1–1 | 36 | 30 | 35 | 1.3–1.3 | CRO | ✗ |
| Jun 25 | ENGvSVN | 0–0 | 94 | 5 | 1 | 4.0–0.4 | ENG | ✗ |
| Jun 25 | DENvSRB | 0–0 | 57 | 26 | 18 | 1.8–0.9 | DEN | ✗ |
| Jun 25 | NEDvAUT | 2–3 | 70 | 20 | 10 | 2.3–0.7 | NED | ✗ |
| Jun 25 | FRAvPOL | 1–1 | 94 | 5 | 1 | 4.0–0.4 | FRA | ✗ |
| Jun 26 | SVKvROU | 1–1 | 37 | 30 | 33 | 1.4–1.3 | SVK | ✗ |
| Jun 26 | UKRvBEL | 0–0 | 4 | 11 | 85 | 0.6–3.0 | BEL | ✗ |
| Jun 26 | GEOvPOR | 2–0 | 0 | 1 | 99 | 0.3–5.8 | POR | ✗ |
| Jun 26 | CZEvTUR | 1–2 | 30 | 30 | 40 | 1.2–1.4 | TUR | ✓ |
| Jun 29 | SUIvITA | 2–0 | 25 | 29 | 46 | 1.0–1.4 | ITA | ✗ |
| Jun 29 | GERvDEN | 2–0 | 62 | 23 | 16 | 1.9–0.9 | GER | ✓ |
| Jun 30 | ENGvSVK | 2–1 | 91 | 7 | 2 | 3.4–0.4 | ENG | ✓ |
| Jun 30 | ESPvGEO | 4–1 | 97 | 3 | 1 | 4.5–0.3 | ESP | ✓ |
| Jul 1 | FRAvBEL | 1–0 | 41 | 30 | 29 | 1.3–1.1 | FRA | ✓ |
| Jul 1 | PORvSVN | 0–0 | 90 | 8 | 2 | 3.3–0.4 | POR | ✗ |
| Jul 2 | ROUvNED | 0–3 | 5 | 14 | 81 | 0.5–2.6 | NED | ✓ |
| Jul 2 | AUTvTUR | 1–2 | 46 | 29 | 26 | 1.4–1.0 | AUT | ✗ |
| Jul 5 | GERvESP | 1–2 | 25 | 27 | 48 | 1.1–1.6 | ESP | ✓ |
| Jul 5 | PORvFRA | 0–0 | 23 | 28 | 49 | 0.9–1.5 | FRA | ✗ |
| Jul 6 | ENGvSUI | 1–1 | 69 | 21 | 10 | 2.1–0.7 | ENG | ✗ |
| Jul 6 | NEDvTUR | 2–1 | 70 | 20 | 10 | 2.1–0.7 | NED | ✓ |
| Jul 9 | ESPvFRA | 2–1 | 27 | 29 | 43 | 1.0–1.4 | FRA | ✗ |
| Jul 10 | NEDvENG | 1–2 | 22 | 28 | 51 | 0.9–1.5 | ENG | ✓ |
| Jul 14 | ESPvENG | 2–1 | 37 | 30 | 33 | 1.2–1.1 | ESP | ✓ |
