Model accuracy of 53.1% beat the always-pick-favorite baseline (45%) by 8.1 points. Brier score of 0.585 beat the coin-flip baseline (0.667) by 0.082.
Head-to-head performance of different rating models on this tournament. “Elo (walk-forward)” updates ratings after each match; snapshot-based models use pre-tournament ratings for all matches.
| Model | Accuracy | Brier | Log Loss | Correct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley-TerryBest | 51.7% | 0.5472 | 0.9546 | 15/29 |
| Glicko-2 | 55.2% | 0.5597 | 0.9320 | 16/29 |
| Elo (walk-forward) | 53.1% | 0.5854 | 0.9862 | 17/32 |
| Grid-Optimized | 51.7% | 0.6448 | 1.0972 | 15/29 |
| Combined (Elo+Roster) | 51.7% | 0.6938 | 1.1899 | 15/29 |
Ratings before the tournament began. Only participating teams shown.
| Date | Match | Score | H% | D% | A% | xG | Pred | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 20 | ARGvCAN | 2–0 | 84 | 12 | 4 | 3.0–0.6 | ARG | ✓ |
| Jun 21 | PERvCHI | 0–0 | 41 | 30 | 29 | 1.4–1.2 | PER | ✗ |
| Jun 22 | ECUvVEN | 1–2 | 55 | 26 | 19 | 1.8–0.9 | ECU | ✗ |
| Jun 22 | MEXvJAM | 1–0 | 72 | 19 | 9 |
| 1587 |
| 1413 |
| 1727 |
| 28 | CanadaCAN | 1569 | 1569 | 1431 | 1666 |
| 39 | PanamaPAN | 1553 | 1553 | 1447 | 1636 |
| 52 | Costa RicaCRC | 1536 | 1536 | 1464 | 1623 |
| 53 | EcuadorECU | 1534 | 1534 | 1466 | 1702 |
| 58 | PeruPER | 1531 | 1531 | 1469 | 1681 |
| 59 | JamaicaJAM | 1529 | 1529 | 1471 | 1619 |
| 64 | ChileCHI | 1516 | 1516 | 1484 | 1678 |
| 94 | VenezuelaVEN | 1487 | 1487 | 1513 | 1678 |
| 101 | ParaguayPAR | 1478 | 1478 | 1522 | 1666 |
| 2.3–0.7 |
| MEX |
| ✓ |
| Jun 23 | USAvBOL | 2–0 | 99 | 1 | 0 | 6.0–0.3 | USA | ✓ |
| Jun 23 | URUvPAN | 3–1 | 48 | 28 | 24 | 1.6–1.1 | URU | ✓ |
| Jun 24 | COLvPAR | 2–1 | 84 | 12 | 4 | 3.0–0.6 | COL | ✓ |
| Jun 24 | BRAvCRC | 0–0 | 83 | 13 | 5 | 2.9–0.6 | BRA | ✗ |
| Jun 25 | PERvCAN | 0–1 | 24 | 28 | 48 | 1.1–1.6 | CAN | ✓ |
| Jun 25 | CHIvARG | 0–1 | 1 | 4 | 95 | 0.4–4.3 | ARG | ✓ |
| Jun 26 | ECUvJAM | 3–1 | 32 | 30 | 38 | 1.2–1.4 | JAM | ✗ |
| Jun 26 | VENvMEX | 1–0 | 3 | 9 | 88 | 0.5–3.3 | MEX | ✗ |
| Jun 27 | USAvPAN | 1–2 | 74 | 17 | 9 | 2.6–0.8 | USA | ✗ |
| Jun 27 | URUvBOL | 5–0 | 96 | 3 | 1 | 4.5–0.4 | URU | ✓ |
| Jun 28 | COLvCRC | 3–0 | 62 | 24 | 14 | 2.0–0.8 | COL | ✓ |
| Jun 28 | PARvBRA | 1–4 | 1 | 3 | 96 | 0.4–4.6 | BRA | ✓ |
| Jun 29 | ARGvPER | 2–0 | 95 | 4 | 1 | 4.3–0.4 | ARG | ✓ |
| Jun 29 | CANvCHI | 0–0 | 59 | 25 | 16 | 1.9–0.9 | CAN | ✗ |
| Jun 30 | MEXvECU | 0–0 | 73 | 19 | 9 | 2.4–0.7 | MEX | ✗ |
| Jun 30 | JAMvVEN | 0–3 | 43 | 29 | 28 | 1.5–1.1 | JAM | ✗ |
| Jul 1 | USAvURU | 0–1 | 48 | 27 | 25 | 1.7–1.2 | USA | ✗ |
| Jul 1 | BOLvPAN | 1–3 | 2 | 7 | 92 | 0.5–3.7 | PAN | ✓ |
| Jul 2 | BRAvCOL | 1–1 | 57 | 26 | 18 | 1.8–0.9 | BRA | ✗ |
| Jul 2 | CRCvPAR | 2–1 | 64 | 23 | 13 | 2.1–0.8 | CRC | ✓ |
| Jul 4 | ARGvECU | 1–1 | 93 | 6 | 1 | 3.6–0.4 | ARG | ✗ |
| Jul 5 | VENvCAN | 1–1 | 18 | 26 | 56 | 0.8–1.7 | CAN | ✗ |
| Jul 6 | URUvBRA | 0–0 | 16 | 25 | 59 | 0.8–1.8 | BRA | ✗ |
| Jul 6 | COLvPAN | 5–0 | 57 | 26 | 18 | 1.7–0.8 | COL | ✓ |
| Jul 9 | ARGvCAN | 2–0 | 86 | 11 | 3 | 2.9–0.5 | ARG | ✓ |
| Jul 10 | URUvCOL | 0–1 | 31 | 30 | 39 | 1.1–1.3 | COL | ✓ |
| Jul 13 | CANvURU | 2–2 | 20 | 27 | 53 | 0.9–1.6 | URU | ✗ |
| Jul 14 | ARGvCOL | 1–0 | 67 | 21 | 11 | 2.0–0.7 | ARG | ✓ |
