Model accuracy of 53.1% beat the always-pick-favorite baseline (45%) by 8.1 points. Brier score of 0.674 was near the coin-flip baseline (0.667).
Head-to-head performance of different rating models on this tournament. “Elo (walk-forward)” updates ratings after each match; snapshot-based models use pre-tournament ratings for all matches.
| Model | Accuracy | Brier | Log Loss | Correct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glicko-2Best | 54.7% | 0.6100 | 1.1633 | 35/64 |
| Grid-Optimized | 56.3% | 0.6353 | 1.2147 | 36/64 |
| Combined (Elo+Roster) | 57.8% | 0.6455 | 1.2396 | 37/64 |
| Bradley-Terry | 51.6% | 0.6587 | 1.2441 | 33/64 |
| Elo (walk-forward) | 53.1% | 0.6737 | 1.2462 | 34/64 |
Ratings before the tournament began. Only participating teams shown.
| Date | Match | Score | H% | D% | A% | xG | Pred | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20 | QATvECU | 0–2 | 91 | 7 | 2 | 3.7–0.6 | QAT | ✗ |
| Nov 21 | SENvNED | 0–2 | 60 | 25 | 16 | 1.9–0.9 | SEN | ✗ |
| Nov 21 | ENGvIRN | 6–2 | 45 | 29 | 26 | 1.5–1.1 | ENG | ✓ |
| Nov 21 | USAvWAL | 1–1 | 75 | 17 | 8 |
| 1361 |
| 1755 |
| 7 | MexicoMEX | 1639 | 1639 | 1361 | 1691 |
| 9 | JapanJPN | 1633 | 1633 | 1367 | 1679 |
| 10 | PortugalPOR | 1631 | 1631 | 1369 | 1749 |
| 11 | GermanyGER | 1630 | 1630 | 1370 | 1738 |
| 12 | United StatesUSA | 1621 | 1621 | 1379 | 1675 |
| 13 | NetherlandsNED | 1620 | 1620 | 1380 | 1737 |
| 14 | South KoreaKOR | 1614 | 1614 | 1386 | 1665 |
| 15 | IranIRN | 1611 | 1611 | 1389 | 1685 |
| 16 | DenmarkDEN | 1602 | 1602 | 1398 | 1737 |
| 17 | SenegalSEN | 1602 | 1602 | 1398 | 1672 |
| 18 | CroatiaCRO | 1602 | 1602 | 1398 | 1720 |
| 19 | SwitzerlandSUI | 1593 | 1593 | 1407 | 1715 |
| 21 | MoroccoMAR | 1585 | 1585 | 1415 | 1686 |
| 22 | CanadaCAN | 1585 | 1585 | 1415 | 1698 |
| 23 | UruguayURU | 1579 | 1579 | 1421 | 1725 |
| 25 | QatarQAT | 1574 | 1574 | 1426 | 1645 |
| 26 | AustraliaAUS | 1567 | 1567 | 1433 | 1672 |
| 27 | SerbiaSRB | 1565 | 1565 | 1435 | 1696 |
| 28 | PolandPOL | 1564 | 1564 | 1436 | 1696 |
| 29 | TunisiaTUN | 1563 | 1563 | 1437 | 1680 |
| 30 | Costa RicaCRC | 1561 | 1561 | 1439 | 1647 |
| 31 | WalesWAL | 1560 | 1560 | 1440 | 1683 |
| 41 | Saudi ArabiaKSA | 1539 | 1539 | 1461 | 1630 |
| 48 | CameroonCMR | 1535 | 1535 | 1465 | 1649 |
| 64 | EcuadorECU | 1515 | 1515 | 1485 | 1702 |
| 84 | GhanaGHA | 1494 | 1494 | 1506 | 1632 |
| 2.5–0.7 |
| USA |
| ✗ |
| Nov 22 | ARGvKSA | 1–2 | 97 | 3 | 1 | 4.6–0.4 | ARG | ✗ |
| Nov 22 | MEXvPOL | 0–0 | 82 | 13 | 5 | 2.9–0.6 | MEX | ✗ |
| Nov 22 | DENvTUN | 0–0 | 24 | 28 | 48 | 1.1–1.6 | TUN | ✗ |
| Nov 22 | FRAvAUS | 4–1 | 80 | 14 | 6 | 2.7–0.6 | FRA | ✓ |
| Nov 23 | GERvJPN | 1–2 | 24 | 28 | 47 | 1.1–1.6 | JPN | ✓ |
| Nov 23 | ESPvCRC | 7–0 | 84 | 12 | 4 | 3.0–0.6 | ESP | ✓ |
| Nov 23 | MARvCRO | 0–0 | 64 | 23 | 13 | 2.0–0.8 | MAR | ✗ |
| Nov 23 | BELvCAN | 1–0 | 91 | 7 | 2 | 3.6–0.5 | BEL | ✓ |
| Nov 24 | SUIvCMR | 1–0 | 37 | 30 | 33 | 1.4–1.3 | SUI | ✓ |
| Nov 24 | BRAvSRB | 2–0 | 99 | 1 | 0 | 5.6–0.3 | BRA | ✓ |
| Nov 24 | URUvKOR | 0–0 | 9 | 19 | 73 | 0.7–2.4 | KOR | ✗ |
| Nov 24 | PORvGHA | 3–2 | 87 | 10 | 3 | 3.2–0.5 | POR | ✓ |
| Nov 25 | QATvSEN | 1–3 | 9 | 17 | 75 | 0.8–2.6 | SEN | ✓ |
| Nov 25 | NEDvECU | 1–1 | 94 | 5 | 1 | 4.0–0.4 | NED | ✗ |
| Nov 25 | WALvIRN | 0–2 | 7 | 16 | 78 | 0.7–2.6 | IRN | ✓ |
| Nov 25 | ENGvUSA | 0–0 | 61 | 24 | 15 | 1.9–0.9 | ENG | ✗ |
| Nov 26 | POLvKSA | 2–0 | 35 | 30 | 35 | 1.3–1.3 | POL | ✓ |
| Nov 26 | ARGvMEX | 2–0 | 53 | 27 | 20 | 1.7–1.0 | ARG | ✓ |
| Nov 26 | TUNvAUS | 0–1 | 63 | 23 | 14 | 2.0–0.8 | TUN | ✗ |
| Nov 26 | FRAvDEN | 2–1 | 75 | 17 | 8 | 2.5–0.7 | FRA | ✓ |
| Nov 27 | JPNvCRC | 0–1 | 94 | 5 | 1 | 4.0–0.4 | JPN | ✗ |
| Nov 27 | ESPvGER | 1–1 | 49 | 28 | 23 | 1.6–1.1 | ESP | ✗ |
| Nov 27 | BELvMAR | 0–2 | 67 | 22 | 12 | 2.1–0.8 | BEL | ✗ |
| Nov 27 | CROvCAN | 4–1 | 49 | 28 | 23 | 1.6–1.0 | CRO | ✓ |
| Nov 28 | CMRvSRB | 3–3 | 46 | 29 | 26 | 1.6–1.1 | CMR | ✗ |
| Nov 28 | BRAvSUI | 1–0 | 95 | 4 | 1 | 4.3–0.4 | BRA | ✓ |
| Nov 28 | KORvGHA | 2–3 | 89 | 8 | 2 | 3.4–0.5 | KOR | ✗ |
| Nov 28 | PORvURU | 2–0 | 76 | 17 | 7 | 2.5–0.7 | POR | ✓ |
| Nov 29 | ECUvSEN | 1–2 | 0 | 2 | 98 | 0.3–5.3 | SEN | ✓ |
| Nov 29 | QATvNED | 0–2 | 13 | 21 | 66 | 0.9–2.3 | NED | ✓ |
| Nov 29 | WALvENG | 0–3 | 1 | 6 | 93 | 0.4–3.9 | ENG | ✓ |
| Nov 29 | IRNvUSA | 0–1 | 44 | 29 | 27 | 1.5–1.1 | IRN | ✗ |
| Nov 30 | POLvARG | 0–2 | 2 | 6 | 92 | 0.5–3.7 | ARG | ✓ |
| Nov 30 | KSAvMEX | 1–2 | 5 | 14 | 82 | 0.6–2.8 | MEX | ✓ |
| Nov 30 | AUSvDEN | 1–0 | 31 | 30 | 39 | 1.2–1.4 | DEN | ✗ |
| Nov 30 | TUNvFRA | 1–0 | 8 | 18 | 73 | 0.7–2.4 | FRA | ✗ |
| Dec 1 | JPNvESP | 2–1 | 38 | 30 | 33 | 1.4–1.2 | JPN | ✓ |
| Dec 1 | CRCvGER | 2–4 | 8 | 17 | 76 | 0.7–2.5 | GER | ✓ |
| Dec 1 | CROvBEL | 0–0 | 5 | 14 | 81 | 0.6–2.8 | BEL | ✗ |
| Dec 1 | CANvMAR | 1–2 | 4 | 12 | 85 | 0.6–3.0 | MAR | ✓ |
| Dec 2 | SRBvSUI | 2–3 | 19 | 26 | 55 | 0.9–1.8 | SUI | ✓ |
| Dec 2 | CMRvBRA | 1–0 | 0 | 1 | 99 | 0.3–5.7 | BRA | ✗ |
| Dec 2 | GHAvURU | 0–2 | 24 | 28 | 48 | 1.1–1.6 | URU | ✓ |
| Dec 2 | KORvPOR | 2–1 | 21 | 28 | 51 | 1.0–1.7 | POR | ✗ |
| Dec 3 | NEDvUSA | 3–1 | 41 | 30 | 30 | 1.3–1.1 | NED | ✓ |
| Dec 3 | ARGvAUS | 2–1 | 86 | 11 | 4 | 2.9–0.5 | ARG | ✓ |
| Dec 4 | FRAvPOL | 3–1 | 89 | 9 | 3 | 3.1–0.4 | FRA | ✓ |
| Dec 4 | ENGvSEN | 3–0 | 34 | 30 | 36 | 1.2–1.2 | SEN | ✗ |
| Dec 5 | JPNvCRO | 1–1 | 67 | 22 | 12 | 2.0–0.7 | JPN | ✗ |
| Dec 5 | BRAvKOR | 4–1 | 81 | 14 | 5 | 2.6–0.5 | BRA | ✓ |
| Dec 6 | MARvESP | 0–0 | 47 | 28 | 24 | 1.4–1.0 | MAR | ✗ |
| Dec 6 | PORvSUI | 6–1 | 62 | 24 | 14 | 1.8–0.8 | POR | ✓ |
| Dec 9 | CROvBRA | 1–1 | 2 | 7 | 91 | 0.4–3.4 | BRA | ✗ |
| Dec 9 | NEDvARG | 2–2 | 14 | 23 | 63 | 0.7–1.9 | ARG | ✗ |
| Dec 10 | MARvPOR | 1–0 | 43 | 29 | 27 | 1.4–1.0 | MAR | ✓ |
| Dec 10 | ENGvFRA | 1–2 | 37 | 30 | 34 | 1.2–1.1 | ENG | ✗ |
| Dec 13 | ARGvCRO | 3–0 | 79 | 15 | 6 | 2.5–0.6 | ARG | ✓ |
| Dec 14 | FRAvMAR | 2–0 | 39 | 30 | 31 | 1.3–1.1 | FRA | ✓ |
| Dec 17 | CROvMAR | 2–1 | 12 | 22 | 67 | 0.7–2.0 | MAR | ✗ |
| Dec 18 | ARGvFRA | 3–3 | 43 | 29 | 27 | 1.4–1.0 | ARG | ✗ |
