Model accuracy of 52.9% beat the always-pick-favorite baseline (45%) by 7.9 points. Brier score of 0.608 beat the coin-flip baseline (0.667) by 0.059.
Head-to-head performance of different rating models on this tournament. “Elo (walk-forward)” updates ratings after each match; snapshot-based models use pre-tournament ratings for all matches.
| Model | Accuracy | Brier | Log Loss | Correct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley-TerryBest | 56.9% | 0.5197 | 0.8781 | 29/51 |
| Grid-Optimized | 54.9% | 0.5730 | 0.9789 | 28/51 |
| Glicko-2 | 54.9% | 0.6007 | 1.0073 | 28/51 |
| Elo (walk-forward) | 52.9% | 0.6085 | 1.0494 | 27/51 |
| Combined (Elo+Roster) | 54.9% | 0.6234 | 1.0765 | 28/51 |
Ratings before the tournament began. Only participating teams shown.
| Date | Match | Score | H% | D% | A% | xG | Pred | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12 | QATvLBN | 3–0 | 74 | 17 | 9 | 2.6–0.8 | QAT | ✓ |
| Jan 13 | CHNvTJK | 0–0 | 39 | 30 | 32 | 1.4–1.2 | CHN | ✗ |
| Jan 13 | AUSvIND | 2–0 | 64 | 23 | 13 | 2.1–0.8 | AUS | ✓ |
| Jan 13 | UZBvSYR | 0–0 | 82 | 13 | 5 |
| 1443 |
| 1555 |
| 38 | UzbekistanUZB | 1549 | 1549 | 1451 | 1639 |
| 43 | OmanOMA | 1537 | 1537 | 1463 | 1605 |
| 47 | QatarQAT | 1535 | 1535 | 1465 | 1628 |
| 49 | VietnamVNM | 1533 | 1533 | 1467 | 1566 |
| 52 | BahrainBHR | 1529 | 1529 | 1471 | 1583 |
| 57 | JordanJOR | 1526 | 1526 | 1474 | 1609 |
| 62 | IndiaIND | 1522 | 1522 | 1478 | 1517 |
| 64 | MalaysiaMAS | 1518 | 1518 | 1482 | 1516 |
| 66 | United Arab EmiratesUAE | 1517 | 1517 | 1483 | 1600 |
| 67 | Saudi ArabiaKSA | 1516 | 1516 | 1484 | 1629 |
| 70 | IndonesiaIDN | 1510 | 1510 | 1490 | 1516 |
| 74 | China PRCHN | 1505 | 1505 | 1495 | 1595 |
| 83 | TajikistanTJK | 1494 | 1494 | 1506 | 1564 |
| 85 | PalestinePLE | 1491 | 1491 | 1509 | 1577 |
| 101 | LebanonLBN | 1477 | 1477 | 1523 | 1555 |
| 111 | KyrgyzstanKGZ | 1466 | 1466 | 1534 | 1518 |
| 119 | SyriaSYR | 1460 | 1460 | 1540 | 1588 |
| 199 | Hong KongHKG | 1441 | 1441 | 1559 | 1471 |
| 2.9–0.6 |
| UZB |
| ✗ |
| Jan 14 | UAEvHKG | 3–1 | 78 | 16 | 7 | 2.6–0.7 | UAE | ✓ |
| Jan 14 | IRNvPLE | 4–1 | 94 | 5 | 1 | 4.1–0.4 | IRN | ✓ |
| Jan 14 | JPNvVNM | 4–2 | 88 | 9 | 3 | 3.3–0.5 | JPN | ✓ |
| Jan 15 | IDNvIRQ | 1–3 | 9 | 19 | 73 | 0.7–2.4 | IRQ | ✓ |
| Jan 15 | KORvBHR | 3–1 | 79 | 15 | 6 | 2.7–0.6 | KOR | ✓ |
| Jan 15 | MASvJOR | 0–4 | 29 | 29 | 42 | 1.2–1.4 | JOR | ✓ |
| Jan 16 | THAvKGZ | 2–0 | 85 | 11 | 4 | 3.0–0.6 | THA | ✓ |
| Jan 16 | KSAvOMA | 2–1 | 25 | 28 | 47 | 1.1–1.6 | OMA | ✗ |
| Jan 17 | LBNvCHN | 0–0 | 19 | 27 | 54 | 1.0–1.8 | CHN | ✗ |
| Jan 17 | QATvTJK | 1–0 | 66 | 21 | 13 | 2.3–0.9 | QAT | ✓ |
| Jan 18 | SYRvAUS | 0–1 | 2 | 6 | 92 | 0.5–3.7 | AUS | ✓ |
| Jan 18 | INDvUZB | 0–3 | 19 | 27 | 54 | 1.0–1.8 | UZB | ✓ |
| Jan 18 | PLEvUAE | 1–1 | 19 | 26 | 55 | 0.9–1.8 | UAE | ✗ |
| Jan 19 | HKGvIRN | 0–1 | 0 | 1 | 99 | 0.2–6.0 | IRN | ✓ |
| Jan 19 | IRQvJPN | 2–1 | 10 | 20 | 71 | 0.7–2.3 | JPN | ✗ |
| Jan 19 | VNMvIDN | 0–1 | 51 | 28 | 21 | 1.7–1.0 | VNM | ✗ |
| Jan 20 | JORvKOR | 2–2 | 6 | 15 | 79 | 0.6–2.7 | KOR | ✗ |
| Jan 20 | BHRvMAS | 1–0 | 43 | 29 | 28 | 1.5–1.1 | BHR | ✓ |
| Jan 21 | OMAvTHA | 0–0 | 19 | 27 | 54 | 1.0–1.8 | THA | ✗ |
| Jan 21 | KGZvKSA | 0–2 | 8 | 18 | 74 | 0.7–2.4 | KSA | ✓ |
| Jan 22 | QATvCHN | 1–0 | 67 | 21 | 12 | 2.3–0.9 | QAT | ✓ |
| Jan 22 | TJKvLBN | 2–1 | 47 | 29 | 25 | 1.6–1.1 | TJK | ✓ |
| Jan 23 | AUSvUZB | 1–1 | 53 | 27 | 20 | 1.7–1.0 | AUS | ✗ |
| Jan 23 | SYRvIND | 1–0 | 14 | 23 | 63 | 0.8–2.0 | IND | ✗ |
| Jan 23 | HKGvPLE | 0–3 | 10 | 20 | 70 | 0.8–2.3 | PLE | ✓ |
| Jan 23 | IRNvUAE | 2–1 | 90 | 8 | 2 | 3.5–0.5 | IRN | ✓ |
| Jan 24 | IRQvVNM | 3–2 | 74 | 18 | 8 | 2.5–0.7 | IRQ | ✓ |
| Jan 24 | JPNvIDN | 3–1 | 94 | 5 | 1 | 4.0–0.4 | JPN | ✓ |
| Jan 25 | JORvBHR | 0–1 | 39 | 30 | 32 | 1.4–1.2 | JOR | ✗ |
| Jan 25 | KORvMAS | 3–3 | 91 | 7 | 2 | 3.6–0.5 | KOR | ✗ |
| Jan 25 | KGZvOMA | 1–1 | 6 | 15 | 80 | 0.6–2.7 | OMA | ✗ |
| Jan 25 | KSAvTHA | 0–0 | 21 | 27 | 52 | 1.0–1.7 | THA | ✗ |
| Jan 28 | AUSvIDN | 4–0 | 81 | 14 | 5 | 2.8–0.6 | AUS | ✓ |
| Jan 28 | TJKvUAE | 1–1 | 28 | 29 | 43 | 1.1–1.5 | UAE | ✗ |
| Jan 29 | IRQvJOR | 2–3 | 74 | 18 | 8 | 2.4–0.7 | IRQ | ✗ |
| Jan 29 | QATvPLE | 2–1 | 76 | 16 | 8 | 2.7–0.8 | QAT | ✓ |
| Jan 30 | KSAvKOR | 1–1 | 7 | 17 | 76 | 0.7–2.5 | KOR | ✗ |
| Jan 30 | UZBvTHA | 2–1 | 30 | 30 | 41 | 1.2–1.4 | THA | ✗ |
| Jan 31 | BHRvJPN | 1–3 | 3 | 10 | 87 | 0.5–3.0 | JPN | ✓ |
| Jan 31 | IRNvSYR | 1–1 | 99 | 1 | 0 | 5.5–0.3 | IRN | ✗ |
| Feb 2 | AUSvKOR | 1–2 | 25 | 29 | 46 | 1.0–1.4 | KOR | ✓ |
| Feb 2 | TJKvJOR | 0–1 | 20 | 27 | 53 | 0.9–1.6 | JOR | ✓ |
| Feb 3 | IRNvJPN | 2–1 | 31 | 30 | 40 | 1.1–1.3 | JPN | ✗ |
| Feb 3 | QATvUZB | 1–1 | 38 | 28 | 34 | 1.4–1.3 | QAT | ✗ |
| Feb 6 | JORvKOR | 2–0 | 7 | 17 | 77 | 0.6–2.4 | KOR | ✗ |
| Feb 7 | QATvIRN | 3–2 | 7 | 15 | 77 | 0.7–2.5 | IRN | ✗ |
| Feb 10 | QATvJOR | 3–1 | 52 | 26 | 22 | 1.7–1.0 | QAT | ✓ |
