Circa Survivor Week 11 Breakdown (2023)
The 2023 Circa Survivor Pro Football Contest is down to 609 entries remaining after Cincinnati lost as the most popular team last week. Dallas picks made up the biggest chunk of advancing entries.
For Week 11, we have lots of options, with several big favorites, though a lot of them have been heavily used in Circa and/or have holiday week factors.
Below, you will find a generic Optimal Path table for an entry that has used the most popular advancing Circa pick each week. That will be followed by some strategy thoughts for Week 11. Also, as a programming note, next week is Thanksgiving week. I will try to put up a shortened analysis focused on both the Thanksgiving Day and Sunday Week 12 pick overview, by Wednesday morning.
Week 11 Pick Rate Predictions
Here is the table showing the predicted popularity estimates for Week 11, as well as EV and total contest availability for each team.
| Team | Projected | EV | Available |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | 32% | 0.97 | 48% |
| JAC | 20% | 0.95 | 92% |
| DET | 12% | 1.06 | 63% |
| HOU | 11% | 0.90 | 100% |
| SF | 10% | 1.16 | 20% |
| MIA | 9% | 1.21 | 15% |
| BUF | 4% | 1.02 | 6% |
| DAL | 1% | 1.16 | 28% |
You can read my strategy thoughts in the final section below.
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