Circa Survivor Week 10 Breakdown (2023)

The 2023 Circa Survivor Pro Football Contest still has 1,153 entries alive entering Week 10, as we had another high advancement week, with popular picks Cleveland and New Orleans both winning. Only 48 entries were eliminated last week, with 39 of those resulting from Atlanta’s loss to Minnesota.

For Week 10, we have Dallas in play, as entries will be deciding between using them now, on Thanksgiving, or elsewhere, and also a likely popular side in Cincinnati, who has not been survivor-relevant until now.

Below, you will also find a table projecting the future value rankings for all 32 NFL teams, listing out value projections, number of potentially usable weeks remaining, and contest availability. This is the last week I will update that table, for now, as options are getting condensed at the halfway point, but we will also have the Optimal Path analysis to show the best path for survival, using an entry that has used the most popular surviving choice available each week.

Week 10 Pick Rate Predictions

Here is the table showing the predicted popularity estimates for Week 10, as well as EV and future value rank. (note: Chicago’s EV was pre-pick deadline odds, now that they are through with a win, any entry that picked them would have about a 1.43 expected value for this week.)

You can read my strategy thoughts in the final section below.

Circa Future Value Estimates, Weeks 11 to 18

Next is a table summarizing the future value for all teams in the contest.

Some notes on the Future Value calculations here, as they are different than what is displayed on the site in our normal FV formula.

• They account for the holiday weeks as separate pick weeks
• They allocate future value for each week for all teams projected within a certain win odds threshold of both the current projected top favorite of the week, and the top five highest win odds projections for that week.
• “Weeks” is the number of future weeks where that team might be in consideration as a Circa pick, based on our current win odds projections.
• “Availability” is the percentage of entries that are still alive that could pick that team.