100,000 Monte Carlo simulations based on current team ratings
Probability each team reaches each stage of the tournament. For playoff teams, "Qualify" shows the probability of making the World Cup.
| # | Team | Grp | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | H | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2 | IranOut | G | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3 | IraqOut | I | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | EgyptOut | G | 100.0% | 100.0% | — | — | — | — |
| 5 | GhanaOut | L | 100.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6 | HaitiOut | C | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7 | JapanOut | F | 100.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 8 | QatarOut | B | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9 | BrazilOut | C | 100.0% | 100.0% | — | — | — | — |
| 10 | CanadaOut | B | 100.0% | 100.0% | — | — | — | — |
| 11 | FranceOut | I | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | — | — |
| 12 | JordanOut | J | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 13 | MexicoOut | A | 100.0% | 100.0% | — | — | — | — |
| 14 | NorwayOut | I | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | — | — | — |
| 15 | PanamaOut | L | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 16 | SwedenOut | F | 100.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 17 | TurkeyOut | D | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 18 | AlgeriaOut | J | 100.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 19 | AustriaOut | J | 100.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 20 | BelgiumOut | G | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | — | — | — |
| 21 | CroatiaOut | L | 100.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 22 | CuraçaoOut | E | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 23 | EcuadorOut | E | 100.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 24 | EnglandOut | L | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | — | — |
| 25 | GermanyOut | E | 100.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 26 | MoroccoOut | C | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | — | — | — |
| 27 | SenegalOut | I | 100.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 28 | TunisiaOut | F | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 29 | UruguayOut | H | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 30 | ColombiaOut | K | 100.0% | 100.0% | — | — | — | — |
| 31 | DR CongoOut | K | 100.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 32 | ParaguayOut | D | 100.0% | 100.0% | — | — | — | — |
| 33 | PortugalOut | K | 100.0% | 100.0% | — | — | — | — |
| 34 | ScotlandOut | C | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 35 | ArgentinaOut | J | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | — |
| 36 | AustraliaOut | D | 100.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 37 | Cape VerdeOut | H | 100.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 38 | UzbekistanOut | K | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 39 | Ivory CoastOut | E | 100.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 40 | NetherlandsOut | F | 100.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 41 | New ZealandOut | G | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42 | South KoreaOut | A | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 43 | SwitzerlandOut | B | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | — | — | — |
| 44 | Saudi ArabiaOut | H | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 45 | South AfricaOut | A | 100.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 46 | United StatesOut | D | 100.0% | 100.0% | — | — | — | — |
| 47 | Czech RepublicOut | A | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 48 | Bosnia and HerzegovinaOut | B | 100.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
Based on 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations | Last updated August 29, 2026
