2022 Round Recaps: Sweet 16 & Elite Eight Recap

We review key 2022 tournament results after each round, and track the positioning of TeamRankings brackets vs. the public.

Sweet 16 & Elite 8 Recap

(You can also skip down to our First Round Recap and Second Round Recap if you’re interested.)

Note to subscribers: We will send out a link to our 2022 NCAA Bracket Picks subscriber survey via email next Tuesday, April 5, the day after the NCAA Tournament championship game. Please take a few minutes to fill it out. It’s the only way we can measure how our brackets did in real-world pools, and we’d greatly appreciate your feedback on the product.

The 2022 Final Four is set. In terms of pick popularity in bracket pools, here’s how it breaks down according to an average of public picking trends data from multiple bracket contest sites:

• 44% of brackets nationwide picked No. 1 Kansas to make the Final Four
• 20% picked No. 2 Villanova
• 18% picked No. 2 Duke
• 2% picked No. 8 North Carolina

Add those percentages up, and the “average” bracket this year is expected to have gotten 0.84 Final Four picks correct.

Assuming that Final Four picks from all four regions are independent, here is the percentage of brackets you’d expect to have gotten each possible number of Final Four picks right this year:

• 0.03% of brackets (1 in 3,333) picked all Final Four teams correctly
• 2% picked three teams correctly
• 16% picked two teams correctly
• 46% picked one team correctly
• 36% picked no teams correctly

Your Pool(s) May Not Reflect National Averages

Of course, from specific pool to specific pool, pick percentages for each team can vary substantially, especially in smaller pools. If you’re in a 10-person pool in ACC country and several entries had both Duke and North Carolina in the Final Four this year along with Kansas, well, that’s just very bad luck for you.

On the other hand, if you’re in a 100-person pool in SEC or Big Ten country, getting two Final Four picks right might put you in great position, since no Big Ten or SEC teams made it.