Circa Survivor Contest Week 9 (2022)
Week 9 gives us another week where several of the big guns are at the top of the list, and contestants have to choose between higher present value, and saving teams. Jason breaks it down in the above video, and more detailed future value info and holiday info is contained in the discussion and tables below.
Circa Week 8 Results
After several weeks of wipeouts, we finally had a week where nearly everyone advanced. In fact, only 2 entries were eliminated, one picking Indianapolis and the other Jacksonville.
Circa is at 123 entries remaining after eight weeks, representing 2% of the original pool.
The most common pick to survive were the Cowboys (49%) and the Eagles (30%) as Circa entrants went heavily on those two, and light on Buffalo (2%) compared to our other pick data.
Among alternatives, Atlanta was easily the most popular choice, as 12 entries (10%) got through when Atlanta survived against Carolina in overtime. So the wild plays at the end of that one definitely had an impact on Circa.
Each week, Jason projects the Circa pick rates to try to assess strategy and value. Last week was our biggest “miss” from a projection standpoint, as Dallas ended up being the most popular and being the pick for nearly half the pool, while he projected Dallas to be less popular than Philadelphia, because of the Thanksgiving factor.
After eight weeks, we still have one contestant (CRUSHEMSPORTS.COM) with six entries remaining. Up until last week, that contestant had used the same team each week on all six entries, but last week split between Dallas and Miami.
Our recommendations last week, based on projected pick rates, were to focus on Dallas (more popular than we expected) and Atlanta if looking for a diversity option to save future value.
Week 9 and Future Value Estimates
Here are some custom future value estimates for the Circa contest, accounting for the Thanksgiving and Christmas pick weeks, as well as the reduced options for games that fall during those same weeks but aren’t part of those holiday slates. These take into account our projected win odds for future weeks, and the distribution of options available in those weeks.