Circa Survivor Contest Week 7 (2022)

No video today, as Jason is battling being able to talk on camera with a bad cough. But here is a written breakdown for the Week 7 Circa Survivor contest.

Circa Week 6 Results

Week 6 continued the run of big eliminations, as just over half of the entries remaining survived the week (382 of 718 that started the week).

The most popular pick, the Rams, advanced, but Tampa Bay (17%), Green Bay (14%), San Francisco (8%) and Baltimore (4%) all took the loss. Besides the Rams, the Eagles and Chargers (6% each) were the only two teams that were picked by more than 1% of the Circa pool to advance.

Each week, Jason projects the Circa pick rates to try to assess strategy and value. Here’s how that went in Week 6:

San Francisco had line movement downward over the weekend after the predictions were made, and the Eagles had upward line movement, so we saw some shifts there, but overall, the predictions were close for Week 6.

After six weeks, there is only one contestant (CRUSHEMSPORTS.COM) that has made it through with all six entries (by picking the same team with each entry). That contestant has used Chicago, Green Bay, LA Chargers, NY Giants, Philadelphia, and Tampa Bay.

There is also one contestant with five entries, one with four entries, and four with three entries remaining. Meanwhile, there are 39 with two entries, and 277 contestants down to a single entry remaining. That means 72.5% of the Circa pool are single-entry contestants at this point.

Week 7 and Future Value Estimates

Here are some custom future value estimates for the Circa contest, accounting for the Thanksgiving and Christmas pick weeks, as well as the reduced options for games that fall during those same weeks but aren’t part of those holiday slates. These take into account our projected win odds for future weeks, and the distribution of options available in those weeks.