Survivor Pool Advice for Subscribers in 2023 NFL Playoff Pools
Welcome to the PoolGenius survivor pool pick strategy article for the 2022-23 NFL playoffs. This is a premium article available to subscribers with access to our NFL Survivor Picks product.
If you don’t already have access, you’ll see a button at the bottom of this page to subscribe.
Because of the unique complexity of playoff survivor pools, our NFL Survivor Picks product does not provide customized, pool-specific pick recommendations for playoff pools like it does for regular-season pools.
Instead, this article provides our data-driven analysis of playoff survivor pool pick strategies, from the Wild Card Round to the Super Bowl. We update it multiple times weekly throughout the playoffs, and include news updates that are likely to impact survivor pick strategy. So check here to get our recommendations for each playoff round.
Here are the updates and plan for the Super Bowl:
- Mon, Jan. 31: Super Bowl Matchup and Spread
- Wed, Feb. 1: Super Bowl Pick Popularity
- Thu, Feb. 2: Survivor Strategy for the Super Bowl
If you want to see our previous Conference Championship Week advice, click here, for Divisional Round advice, click here, and for Wild Card Round Strategy advice, click here.
Subscribers who still have questions after reading this article can submit them via the product’s Q&A Forum. Just make sure to do it by Friday at noon to guarantee that we have time to review it. The earlier you get your question in, the better the odds that we can respond in time.
Super Bowl Survivor Content
2023 Super Bowl Matchup, Spread and Total
A year after we had a Super Bowl without any No. 1 or No. 2 seeds, we get both of the conference’s top seeds squaring off in Super Bowl LVII.
The Philadelphia Eagles won handily 31-7 against the short-handed San Francisco 49ers, as Niners QB Brock Purdy tore his UCL on the first drive and backup Josh Johnson also suffered an injury later in the game. Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs finally won a close game by a field goal over the Cincinnati Bengals after losing three similar games to them in the last two seasons.
Philadelphia is a 2-point favorite against Kansas City, with 54 percent win odds, in a game being played in Arizona. The over/under is 49.5 points.
[UPDATE on 2/1: the line is now down to Philadelphia -1, with 52 percent win odds.]
Super Bowl Pick Popularity
The Chiefs are actually the more popular side as a slight underdog. The line has now moved to one point in favor of Philadelphia. As of right now, we are showing about 64 percent popularity on Kansas City.
Of course, you will likely see a split based on your pool type. In those where you cannot reuse teams, more advancing entries used Philadelphia than Kansas City last wee, at a more than two-to-one ratio, which explains why Kansas City would be the more popular side out of necessity now.
In those where you can reuse, though, Philadelphia is more likely to be the popular choice. The Eagles are being picked by over 60 percent of the public in game-winner and spread pools, which is a good approximation of where the public falls if all choices are available.
Survivor Strategy for the Super Bowl
If you are in a pool where you cannot reuse teams, the die is cast. You had to pick a winner to get here, so you now must take the other team still available.
That’s why the Chiefs are the more popular pick right now. More entries advanced in the last round by picking the Eagles over the 49ers than picking the Kansas City to get here.
If you’re in a pool where you can pick either team, then the current pick rates in pick’em pools would suggest there is EV value on picking the Chiefs. The public is more heavily on the Eagles, while the game odds are fairly even, with the Eagles at 53% to win in the betting markets right now.
Conference Championship Survivor Content
Here are the updates and schedule for the conference championship games. If you want to see our earlier content for the Divisional Round, click here, and for the Wild Card Round, click here.
- Mon, Jan. 23: Championship Game Matchups and Spreads
- Tue, Jan. 24: Championship Game Advancement Odds
- Tue, Jan. 24: Championship Game Pick Popularity and EV
- Wed, Jan. 25: Survivor Strategy in Pools Where You Can’t Reuse Teams
- Wed, Jan. 25: Survivor Strategy in Pools Where You Can Reuse Teams
If you have strategy questions after reading this article, feel free to drop a question in the Support Forum. Just get it in by Friday at noon to guarantee that we have time to review it.