2021 College Basketball Bracket Prediction (FINAL: Selection Sunday)

Selection Sunday is here and we have our final bracket predictions as the Committtee moves toward naming the field later today.

Selection Sunday is here. We’ll be quick, because at this point, all the results are in, except for a few title games today, and the field should be set, pending one potential automatic bid in the American that could shift the bubble (if Cincinnati upsets Houston).

And now that we are almost here, if you are participating in a bracket pool this year, don’t forget to check out our 2021 NCAA Bracket Picks. Our bracket pool pick advice is customized for your pool size, scoring system, and prize payout structure to give you the maximum edge.Bracket Prediction as of March 14th, 2021

Final Bracket Prediction (March 14th, 2021)

Here is our mostly final bracket. The only thing that could significantly impact this bracket at this point is a major upset in the American Conference final, where Cincinnati is playing Houston. If that happened, we would have to slot Cincinnati into the automatic bids, remove one of the final at-larges, and likely shift Houston off the No. 2 seed line. Absent that, this projected bracket will not change heading into the Selection Show.

For those interested, here is the overall projected seed list:

Gonzaga
Baylor
Illinois
Michigan
Alabama
Ohio State
Iowa
Houston
Kansas
Oklahoma State
Arkansas
Texas
Purdue
Virginia
West Virginia
Florida State
Creighton
Tennessee
USC
Villanova
BYU
Colorado
LSU
Missouri
San Diego State
Oregon
Wisconsin
Clemson
Texas Tech
Loyola-Chicago
St. Bonaventure
Connecticut
Georgia Tech
Rutgers
North Carolina
Florida
Oklahoma
Maryland
VCU
Michigan State
Virginia Tech
Louisville
Syracuse
Wichita State
Drake
Georgetown
UCLA
Oregon State
Winthrop
UCSB
North Texas
Ohio
Colgate
UNC-Greensboro
Liberty
Abilene Christian
Morehead State
Eastern Washington
Grand Canyon
Cleveland State
Drexel
Iona
Oral Roberts
Hartford
Texas Southern
Mount St. Mary’s
Norfolk State
Appalachian State

Bracket Prediction as of March 13th, 2021

It’s Championship Saturday, where 15 different automatic bids will be decided.

Here is our projected 2021 college basketball bracket, which accounts for games played through Friday, March 12th, and incorporates projections for all remaining conference tournament potential matchups.

If you want to see in-depth discussions of some of the bubble teams, check out our weekly Bubble Breakdown update which goes into more detail on team resumés and outlooks.

Teams with an asterisk are our current projected automatic bid winners for their conferences.

Here is how we see things heading into Championship Saturday

Highlights/Changes

Here are the biggest changes to this bracket since the last update, as we head into Saturday:

Oklahoma State solidifies themselves on the No. 3 seed line with their big win over Baylor in the Big 12 Tournament. Could they get to the No. 2 line? Probably not, as the last spot is the only one in doubt, and Arkansas and Houston are both still playing.
Connecticut drops back down with the close loss to Creighton in the Big East semifinal. A win for them in that game could have moved them up the bracket significantly, but they could not get a final tying shot to go down.
San Diego State, LSU, and St. Bonaventure are all on the No. 8 line, but still playing this weekend, and capable of moving up as all the teams immediately in front of them have been eliminated and left the door open.
At the bubble, Utah State beat Colorado State very late last night, and moves into the First Four, above the cutline. They can remove any doubt by winning the Mountain West Tournament again today with a win over San Diego State, just as they did a year ago.
Here’s how we see the Last Four In and First Four Out right now, in order: Utah State, Drake, UCLA, Saint Louis IN; Colorado State, Mississippi, Seton Hall, and Boise State OUT.
Saint Louis moves in for now, but that may be temporary. Georgetown and Oregon State are both playing for automatic bids today, and Memphis and Cincinnati are both still alive in the American Athletic Conference semifinals today. Colorado State and Saint Louis are very close to each other, but the nod goes to the Billikens based on (a) better overall Q1/2 record, and (b) non-conference wins over LSU and NC State.

Bracket Prediction as of March 12th, 2021

Here is our projected 2021 college basketball bracket, which accounts for games played through Thursday, March 11th, and incorporates projections for all remaining conference tournament potential matchups.

If you want to see in-depth discussions of some of the bubble teams, check out our weekly Bubble Breakdown update which goes into more detail on team resumés and outlooks.

Teams with an asterisk are our current projected automatic bid winners for their conferences.

Highlights/Changes

Here are the biggest changes to this bracket since the last update yesterday:

Virginia is still in the bracket for now, and at a No. 4 seed. This is accounting for Virginia now being done in the ACC Tournament, but if Virginia officially withdraws from consideration for the NCAA Tournament by Sunday morning, we will update with that news.
Villanova is down to a No. 6 seed. They would be the final No. 5 seed based strictly on overall resume but will almost certainly be seeded down a line or two, so a No. 7 seed is not out of the question depending on what else happens today.
Texas Tech and Oklahoma both drop in the projections now that they are eliminated, and do not have the potential to add quality wins in the Big 12 tourney. Neither actually has a great record against the top two Quadrants, and their strength of record rankings are both outside the Top 36.
North Carolina and Connecticut continue to move up based on recent form and improving NET rankings.
The bubble is almost set, but there aren’t easy calls right now in the last six spots. UCLA dropped to a First Four game, and would not be a total surprise if they were left out. Louisville and Syracuse could be in the First Four as well. One thing that is more probable is that Boise State dropped out of consideration with their early loss to Nevada yesterday. Check out the Bubble Breakdown update for more details on the outlook in that range.

Bracket Prediction as of March 11th, 2021

Here is our projected 2021 college basketball bracket, which accounts for games played through Wednesday, March 10th, and incorporates projections for all remaining conference tournament potential matchups.

If you want to see in-depth discussions of some of the bubble teams, check out our weekly Bubble Breakdown update which goes into more detail on team resumés and outlooks.

Teams with an asterisk are our current projected automatic bid winners for their conferences.

Highlights/Changes

Here are the biggest changes to this bracket since the last update on March 8:

BYU drops slightly to the No. 7 seed line, for now, pending lots of other results, but are right on the cutline to get a No. 6 seed.
Clemson‘s upset loss to Miami in the ACC Tournament drops them down to a No. 7 seed.
Connecticut moves up to the last No. 7 seed for now, and this is in part to their draw to a Big East title being more favorable now, after DePaul knocked off Providence and UConn gets them on Thursday.
North Carolina moves up to the No. 9 seed line with their blowout win over Notre Dame.
Louisville drops to the First Four games with the loss to Duke, and should now be considered on the bubble.
Duke moves into the First 4 Out with the win over Louisville and could move to right near the bubble with a win over Florida State.
Cleveland State, Oral Roberts, Appalachian State, Mount St. Mary’s and Drexel all move into the bracket after winning auto bids. Iona moves into the bracket as the projected MAAC winner after knocking off Siena.

Bracket Prediction as of March 8th, 2021

Here is our projected 2021 college basketball bracket, which accounts for games played through March 7th, and incorporates projections for all remaining conference tournaments, now that the seeds and matchups are set.

If you want to see in-depth discussions of some of the bubble teams, check out our weekly Bubble Breakdown update which goes into more detail on team resumés and outlooks.

Teams with an asterisk are our current projected automatic bid winners for their conferences.

Highlights/Changes

Here are the biggest changes to this bracket since the last update on March 5:

Virginia and Texas move up to the No. 3 seed line for now, as the teams in the 3-5 range are pretty fluid.
We already adjusted Villanova down a seed line based on the Collin Gillespie injury, but after Saturday’s home loss to Providence, we are bumping them down outside the Top 16 seeds, and will re-evaluate if they can show better in the Big East tournament.
Loyola-Chicago moves up to a No. 7 seed with winning the MVC Tournament over Drake.
St. Bonaventure continues to climb, and is now projected for the 8 seed line as the favorite to win the A-10 title game.
Michigan State moves from just out to solidly in the field and above the First Four games with the key win over rival Michigan.
The bottom of the bubble remains in flux and is pretty wide open entering the final week, and we will break it down in more detail in the Bubble Breakdown.
Plenty of movement among the auto bids in this update with conference tournament upsets. Three teams have clinched auto bids so far and we project Winthrop as a 12, and Liberty and Morehead State as 14 seeds. (Liberty is the more likely of the two to move up to a 13 with more upsets).

Bracket Prediction as of March 5th, 2021

Here is our projected 2021 college basketball bracket, which accounts for games played on Friday afternoon, March 5th, including the Atlantic-10 quarterfinals.

If you want to see in-depth discussions of some of the bubble teams, check out our weekly Bubble Breakdown update which goes into more detail on team resumés and outlooks.

This bracket is how we project the NCAA Tournament heading into the final weekend of regular season games for most conferences. We will update again following the weekend’s action.

Teams with an asterisk are our current projected automatic bid winners for their conferences.

Highlights/Changes

Here are the biggest changes to this bracket:

Arkansas moves up to the No. 2 line. They are now inside the Top 8 in strength of record.
Villanova has been dropped to the No. 4 line, based in part on the Collin Gillespie season-ending knee injury
Oregon keeps moving up the seed list and is now at a No. 7.
Connecticut continues to move up, now projected as a No. 8 seed with capability to move higher with run in Big East tourney
Oklahoma slides to the No. 8 line after their fourth straight loss, and is now outside the Top 30 in NET, and has a losing record against top two Quads
Boise State had a bad home loss to Fresno State and drops out of the field for now, and likely needs a big win in the MWC tourney.
Seton Hall and Drake are the last two teams in for now, but in tenuous position. Drake needs to make the MVC final this weekend, Seton Hall probably needs two more wins, and would fall out with a loss to St. John’s this weekend.

Bracket Prediction as of March 2nd, 2021

Here is our projected 2021 college basketball bracket current through all games played by the end of March 1st, 2021. We now have several conferences who have wrapped up their regular seasons and are moving to conference play (Atlantic 10, Missouri Valley, and West Coast Conferences among them) and others finalize this week.

If you want to see in-depth discussions of some of the bubble teams, check out our weekly Bubble Breakdown update which goes into more detail on team resumés and outlooks, and will be updated on Thursday for this week.

Teams with an asterisk are our current projected automatic bid winners for their conferences.

Turnover at the Top

Undefeated Gonzaga still holds on to the top spot as they just have the WCC Tournament remaining. However, we did see plenty of other movement among the top three seed lines this week.

It starts with Michigan, who has moved into the projected second overall spot ahead of Baylor after Baylor’s loss to Kansas. Michigan added an impressive win over Iowa last week to a stout resumé. Baylor is still solidly in a No. 1 seed as well, as the top three teams are virtual locks to remain on the top seed line.

Illinois, though, is now the very slight favorite for the final spot, after going 2-0 without guard Ayo Dosunmu last week, while Ohio State has lost three in a row. The last of those losses was to Iowa on Sunday, and the Hawkeyes are also lurking and still alive for a No. 1 seed as well.

Meanwhile, Villanova fell off the 2-seed line after a bad loss at Butler last week. Kansas and Arkansas, meanwhile, moved up to the 3-seed line as both continued their recent good run of results.

Lots of Changes After “Scrubbing”

There is a bit more movement from last week’s projected bracket. Some of that is based on results, but it’s also based on a more detailed “scrubbing” of the team resumés and outlooks. This includes a specific examination of the NET Rankings and Team Sheet results and data (which is what the committee will be looking at when they gather in one week).

The number of future games is also diminishing, and year-to-date results are becoming more concrete. Further, we can also better project conference tournament brackets and potential matchups with only a handful of games left.

Finally, there are some tiers of teams, and there is plenty of movement within tiers. The combination of all those factors is why there are some notable changes from last week, which we will highlight below.

Teams on the Rise

Here are some teams (other than the top 3 seed lines that we discussed above) that made bigger moves in these projections this week.

San Diego State: Two key wins over Boise State last week, a move up into the Top 20 in the NET, and the projected MWC tourney winner all are factors that move them from a mid-tier seed now to the No. 6 line.
BYU: Also up from a No. 8 to No. 6 this week, now also inside the Top 20 in the NET, and has 8 wins against the top two Quads, more than a lot of the high major teams around them. If they reach the WCC final, resumé looks closer to a No. 5 than a No. 7.
Colorado: Swept USC and UCLA this week, and with USC’s struggles recently, are now the team with the best odds to win the Pac-12 tournament. Up to 12 in the NET rankings, and now closer to the 4/5 area after all those factors are included.
Georgia Tech: Since last week’s update, The Fighting Pastners beat both Virginia Tech and Syracuse, and continue to rise inside the Top 40 in both the NET and predictive power rankings. They go from outside the field to now above the bubble and for now, avoid a First Four game. A key game against Duke this week looms.
Colorado State: “A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.” The Rams have results so far to put them in, with wins against each of San Diego State, Boise State, and Utah State in conference, and a No. 40 ranking in the NET currently. They get Nevada on the road this weekend in what counts as a Quad 2 game, and the outcome their is pivotal. Right now, they move just to the right side of the bubble.

Teams Falling

Here are some notable teams that dropped in our projections.

Oklahoma: Lost to Kansas State and then got swept by rival Oklahoma State in a bad last 7 days. Falling outside the Top 30 in both NET rankings and predictive power rankings, and down to a No. 6 seed after being at No. 3 last week.
Virginia Tech: Big loss to Georgia Tech upon return from a Covid break. The NET ranking has dropped outside the Top 40, though key wins against Villanova and Virginia earlier this year should keep them above the bubble.
Seton Hall: A closer examination of Seton Hall’s resumé has moved them outside the field, barely, after consecutive losses to Georgetown and Butler. They are now outside the Top 50 in the NET and have a losing record against the top two Quads (6-9). Their best win this year is at Connecticut, a team just above the bubble, and they went 0-4 against Creighton and Villanova. They will need to beat UConn again this week.
Indiana and Minnesota: These two have been trying to play themselves off the bubble entirely. Minnesota has lost 5 in a row and Indiana is 1-4 with the only win in that stretch over Minnesota. The Hoosiers still have a chance against Michigan State to rebound this week, while Minnesota is further away from being back in the field after dropping to 6-12 in the Big Ten.
Stanford: The Cardinal have lost three straight to go from just above the bubble to now pretty much off it. They must beat USC on the road this week to get back in the discussion.

Bracket Prediction as of February 23rd, 2021

Here is our projected 2021 college basketball bracket current through all games played by February 22nd.

Teams with an asterisk are our current projected automatic bid winners for their conferences.

Who is the Last #1 Seed?

Gonzaga, Baylor, and Michigan look pretty secure in their quest for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The intrigue comes at the fourth spot. Three candidates are virtually equal right now: Ohio State and Illinois from the Big Ten, and Alabama from the SEC.

And while you may not think it matters whether you are the final No. 1 seed or the top No. 2 seed, it’s got some fairly important stakes this year. Because Gonzaga and Baylor are both locked into the top slots, and the Big Ten is a loaded conference with four teams almost certainly going to be seeded highly, the pecking order in the Big Ten matters a lot.

Whichever of Ohio State and Illinois finishes ahead in the committee’s eyes will likely either be the final No. 1 seed or the No. 2 seed in that same region. However, the team that misses out will slide to either Baylor or Gonzaga’s region. That’s because they cannot be in the same region as Michigan, per bracketing rules.

So the Big Ten closing stretch is vitally important for Ohio State, Illinois, and Iowa, who is not currently in the running for a top seed but could get there by winning the Big Ten tournament. The path to a Final Four appearance is a lot easier if you aren’t in the same region as Gonzaga and Baylor.

Right now, our automated Bracketology page has Alabama as the final No. 1 seed after Michigan’s win at Ohio State. Here, we’ll keep Ohio State in for now based on the strength of their top-end wins in the Big Ten, but it’s a virtual dead heat for that spot over the final three weeks between Ohio State, Alabama, and Illinois now.

Teams on the Rise

Our projections take into account future schedules and potential results. That said, some teams can perform better or worse than expected in key games that can swing their projection. Here are the risers this week:

Iowa (No. 3 to a No. 2)
Kansas (No. 5 to a No. 4)
Oklahoma State (No. 7 to a No. 5)
UCLA (No. 11 to No. 9)
Maryland (No. 12-First Four game to a No. 10)
Duke (Next Four Out to a No. 12 Seed-First Four game)
Wichita State (Outside Next Four Out to now in First Four Out)

Iowa was impressive in two conference wins and is inside the Top 4 in predictive power ratings. They now have a big week coming up.

Kansas finished off a five-game winning streak with a home win over Texas Tech, and has rebounded from a 12-7 record earlier this season. Oklahoma State also got a win over Texas Tech on Big Monday and has won three in a row.

Maryland has rebounded with some big wins lately, including a road win at Rutgers last week. Duke was a big mover, as they took down Virginia for their best win of the year and have won four in a row. If you went by just current resumé, Duke might not be in, but based on the recent results, plus their predictive outlook, they have moved into our field.

Wichita State isn’t in yet, but the win last week against Houston has now put them right on the bubble.

Teams Falling

Texas Tech (No. 4 to a No. 7)
Tennessee (No. 5 to a No. 7)
Louisville (No. 8 to a No. 10)
Connecticut (No. 9 to No. 11)
Minnesota (No. 10 to a No. 12-First Four game)
Saint Louis (No. 11 to First Four Out)

Texas Tech was in the Top 16 in the Committee’s Early Reveal bracket just 10 days ago, and they were the one team that our automated projections did not have in that group, so maybe we are just low on Tech. But they’ve now lost three straight to fall below .500 in the Big 12, and are 4-8 against other teams we have projected into the tournament field. That’s not they type of resumé that generally gets put into a top 5 seed line, so we’ve bumped them down.

Speaking of teams that were in the Top 16 in the Early Reveal, Tennessee has also been on a free fall. They lost by 15 at home to Kentucky on Saturday to drop to 15-6 overall, 8-6 in the SEC.

Louisville got crunched by North Carolina this weekend, which lowered their predictive rating and outlook. Connecticut’s drop is due to the lost opportunity in the loss to Villanova, which while not unexpected, was still a chance to add a great win. Connecticut’s current resumé is right on the cut line, and unless other games are added in from postponements, the only remaining Quad 1 game they have before the Big East tournament is at Seton Hall.

Minnesota got crushed by Illinois at home this weekend, losing 3 straight and 6 of the last 8. None of the remaining regular season games are in Quad 1 and they cannot afford to lose many more, as they sit 6-10 in the Big Ten.

Saint Louis dropped out of our field with a 23-point road loss to Dayton. They’ve got only one real chance to improve their outlook before the A-10 tourney with the road game at VCU tonight.

Bracket Prediction as of February 17th, 2021

Here is our projected 2021 college basketball bracket current through all games played by February 16th.

If you want to see in-depth discussions of some of the bubble teams, check out our weekly Bubble Breakdown update which goes into more detail on team resumés and outlooks.

Teams with an asterisk are our current projected automatic bid winners for their conferences.

Bracket Comparison to NCAA Selection Committee Early Reveal

The NCAA Selection Committee had its Early Reveal of the projected top 16 seeds for the 2021 NCAA Tournament this past weekend. Here were the top 16 teams (Seeds 1 through 4 in each region) from the committee:

Gonzaga
Baylor
Michigan
Ohio State
Illinois
Villanova
Alabama
Houston
Virginia
West Virginia
Tennessee
Oklahoma
Iowa
Texas Tech
Texas
Missouri

Our projections did a pretty good job of matching up with the Committee’s early reveal:

The top 8 teams in our automated bracketology projections all appeared on the top two seed lines.
Fifteen of the 16 teams in the early reveal were also in our projected Top 16 as of Saturday, with the lone exception being Texas Tech.

Other Factors To Consider

There are a couple other things to keep in mind about the Selection Committee’s release. First, the Early Reveal is based on records as of last Friday, February 12, and it doesn’t account for expected future performance like our bracket predictions do.

Also, things have already changed with some key results since Saturday morning. That includes:

Oklahoma winning at West Virginia
Virginia losing to Florida State, a team that most likely just missed being in the Top 16
Villanova losing to Creighton, another team that was most likely just outside the Top 16
Tennessee losing to LSU
Missouri losing to Arkansas and Georgia

Our bracket prediction above is current through games as of Tuesday, February 16. To the extent that it differs, already, from the Committee’s Early Reveal list, it’s because of either (a) results in the days since the reveal, or (b) predictive rankings and expected outcomes in future games, and how those are likely to impact seeding.